I was asked by a fan to post more educational ideas to enrich his learning experience. This one is for him - my in-depth analysis of why bitcoin is heading down using two of my favourite technical analysis tools - Fibbonacci and Elliott waves.
Before we begin, to clarify Elliott wave terminology: - 'Grand Super Cycle' degree is usually found in monthly time frames - 'Super Cycle' degree is usually found in weekly time frames - 'Cycle' degree is usually found in daily time frames
I have mentioned this a few times before but for the benefit of those who have just joined the club, BITCOIN HAS COMPLETED WAVES 1-5 OF A GRAND SUPERCYCLE since its inception! It has almost completed subwave 5 of this grand super cycle which is where we are right now. As someone said, the party is over!
The GRAND super cycle for bitcoin is best viewed on a monthly chart (see below). Note the stoch RSI rise and decline of each "super cycle" of the GRAND Super Cycle from 0 to peak and back down to zero. It has taken years, but we finally got there with subwave 5 of this GRAND SUPERCYCLE almost complete.
The good news is...it has yet to complete the final "cycle" (or subwave 5) of this Super Cycle (which started on Dec '18). Yes I know it's confusing. Take a deep breath and read it again...slowly.
The extension to subwave 3 which occurred from the 9th to 24th June of the current super cycle (which started Dec '18) was just that - an extension. It was WRONG. What do I mean by wrong? Parabolic. Parabolic is WRONG and it will ALWAYS correct. Never believe anyone who tells you it won't or that it will keep rising!
A perfect example of a similar correction was the extension to subwave 3 (that ended December '17) of the previous super cycle. You can see how it corrected there.
In the extension of subwave 3 and in the post-subwave 3 triangle correction of this super cycle, Papa Bear used the following areas of support: 8500 - which is the 0.5 fibb of this super cycle 9165 - which is the base of the corrective triangle.
Where will BTC correct to? Where it should CORRECTLY be at - at the end of subwave 4 of this super cycle so that it can complete subwave 5 of this super cycle.
Papa Bear should linger around the area above for a "little" while before breaking down to the following areas surrounding subwave 4 (shaded areas on the chart in light red/pink): 7200 - 0.618 fibb of this super cycle 7500 - end of subwave 4 of this super cycle
It is this area that I believe is the best buy area for the start of subwave 5 of this super cycle. As to the exact buy in position and sell signals for subwave 5, this is information available to Purple Crypto Premium members.
From the Gann fan on the chart, Papa Bear is trying to maintain a 1/1 trajectory, although it is edging down slightly into the 1/2 territory. It is hard to say how quickly it will reach said levels above. Drawing from how it has corrected more recently, it looks like it will try very hard to stay in the 1/1 territory, dragging out the duration of its correction before the start of the subwave 5 cycle (people are finding it hard to let go :)). The purple 'Xs' mark points of confluence between the fibbs and the gann fan on the 1/1 trajectory.
Following the end of subwave 5 cycle, which also completes the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, I expect an A-B-C correction. Read my previous posts below on this.
It's not all doom and gloom for cryptocurrency. There are coins out there that are in a different cycle to Bitcoin. We just have to dig deep to find them, and undertake proper and thorough analyses (the art of technical analysis) before buying in.
Happy trading!
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Please share your thoughts below. Like my post if you have found it helpful. Follow me to receive updates on this idea. And one last thing - never believe in "parabolic" growth.
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For the benefit of those on a BTC/USDT trade, here's a snapshot of and values for the Bitcoin/Tether chart.
In the extension of subwave 3 and in the post-subwave 3 triangle correction of this super cycle, Papa Bear used the following areas of support: 8578 - which is the 0.5 fibb of this super cycle 9074 - which is the base of the corrective triangle
Papa Bear should linger around the area above for a "little" while before breaking down to the following areas surrounding subwave 4 (shaded areas on the chart in light red/pink): 7305 - 0.618 fibb of this super cycle 7444 - end of subwave 4 of this super cycle
It has edged just below the .382 fibb on the most recent dip (9850 on the USDT chart and 9770 on the USD chart)
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And so it plays like a beautiful melody on a fiddle.
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Bitcoin has broken down through the 1/1 trajectory of the Gann increasing the speed of its descent.
As such, the purple crosses on the chart no longer apply.
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I would be very surprised if bitcoin rose up now.
Ready and armoured for ensuing catastrophe.
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Has bitcoin started its next wave early or is this a lull before the storm?
Either way and other than its initial (yet to be confirmed as "successful") breakout its movements have been slow moving unconvincing.
We recognise that there are better crytpo trade investments than Bitcoin at present which is where our energies are focused.
An updated analysis will be provided when Papa Bear convinces us to.
Safe trading.
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A projection of Papa Bear's most likely path over the next two weeks.
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Is BTC strong enough to break through to the next Gann Fan angle? Share your ideas and comments with us.
For the benefit of those on a BTC/USDT trade, here's a snapshot of and values for the Bitcoin/Tether chart.
In the extension of subwave 3 and in the post-subwave 3 triangle correction of this super cycle, Papa Bear used the following areas of support:
8578 - which is the 0.5 fibb of this super cycle
9074 - which is the base of the corrective triangle
Papa Bear should linger around the area above for a "little" while before breaking down to the following areas surrounding subwave 4 (shaded areas on the chart in light red/pink):
7305 - 0.618 fibb of this super cycle
7444 - end of subwave 4 of this super cycle
It has edged just below the .382 fibb on the most recent dip (9850 on the USDT chart and 9770 on the USD chart)
Slinkman
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@PurpleCrypto, Thanks for your awesome work. Do you have any thought regarding ETH? is the fork pump over? Appreciate your opinion. Thanks
PurpleCrypto
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@Binzaydan, Thanks for the feedback.
Ehtereum is a tough one to work out because its chart history on TV goes back only to 2016. Its cyclic nature in stoch RSI is only visible from 2017.
To clarify, I don't rely on external events to make a decision on where I believe a coin is heading in terms of long-term trend direction. I rely solely on its cyclic nature (and other indicators, signals, etc.). I don't believe forks or events have an impact on a coin's performance over the the longer-term, i.e. months/years.
Relying on the chart data alone, it is possible that it has completed one super cycle and is now starting another one - but this can only be determined over the course of time as it completes future cycles and super cycles.
This is rudimentary information from me though after 5 minutes looking at its weekly/monthly cycles. I'll have a closer look over the next few days and publish something once I am more certain.
Slinkman
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@PurpleCrypto, Thanks a lot for taking the time sir. Cant wait for your next update/idea.
AlanSantana
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Pretty good... It is entertaining to see another perspective and quite educational.
Thanks a lot for sharing this content.
Namaste.
PurpleCrypto
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@alanmasters, You're welcome.
Slinkman
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We need new crosses Purple!! come on dont hold out on us
Slinkman
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DUDE, WHAT THE HECK JUST HAPPENED??
PurpleCrypto
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@Binzaydan, A beauty is what just happened.
Slinkman
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@PurpleCrypto, Okay... Is it time to buy the "dip"? :P
In the extension of subwave 3 and in the post-subwave 3 triangle correction of this super cycle, Papa Bear used the following areas of support:
8578 - which is the 0.5 fibb of this super cycle
9074 - which is the base of the corrective triangle
Papa Bear should linger around the area above for a "little" while before breaking down to the following areas surrounding subwave 4 (shaded areas on the chart in light red/pink):
7305 - 0.618 fibb of this super cycle
7444 - end of subwave 4 of this super cycle
It has edged just below the .382 fibb on the most recent dip (9850 on the USDT chart and 9770 on the USD chart)