What's Next? Bear Market over? Bulls back in control? I don't know. But I do know what I am looking for.
I have drawn fibs (extensions) to measure the current move. I found two impulses (initial push) that made ripples of perfect multiples. So where those ripples overlap will be the mostly like turning points.
The current top around 7600 was an exact confluence of Fib extensions from both impulses. ALSO the Monthly Central Pivot was these, causing may bulls to take profit (including me). So a retrace is pretty much assured at this point. Question is retrace how deep?
I will be watching the areas marked with Green boxes in main chart. Those green zones are areas of Fib overlaps, each being a possible bounce point. So I have 3 good buy zones to watch. Might have just missed a scalp entry, but I think it will offer better buying price.
So now I wait, watch, measure. Will update as things develop.
Disclaimer: I currently own some Bitcoin, have sold a bunch just now, hoping to buy it back lower.
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The first possibility I am watching for: will be observing the EW micro wave structures for clues.
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Short term Price moves matching expectations thus far
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BTC still in perfect sync with longer term fibs (grey) as seen by the tiny moves just now (blue) fib on 1min chart All of those Grey Zones were posted on June 30th
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Follow up to path shown three pictures above. Looks like ABC shaping up about as expected
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I forgot to note the Monthly R1 and Central pivots. The Monthly central would be added support for my ''Ideal'' entry
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Close up again. Am about to minor adjustments to the wave count, but wanted to post my original pot one last time.
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Minor adjustment to the wave count. But target still looks viable.
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Hmm, currently stuck within the Pink fib lines in pic I am still thinking at least a 7k retest before trying to break thru the clear resistance above, But it will require a strong wave 3 down, which perhaps EU/UK will bring about in n the next 1-2 hours...
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Argh! BTC whales not giving us plebs entry ops, just keep pushing higher...
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well, this count was obviously WRONG :( Observing and re-calculating now.
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Price continues to evade my EW paths. But it can not avoid the Fibs. Am rethinking the EW counts now
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Have been wrong with my EW counts, so re-evaluated. The more valid count looks to be in this pic: I thought wave 5 had ended already, but now it seems that wave 5 as an abcde ending diagonal maybe? Regardless, my target entry points are still the same, as not much else has changed in terms of fibs.
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OK, new fib to gauge possible retrace now. The new Fib's 1.618 and 2.618 extensions land exactly with previous zones. So a) confirms new fib is in same rhythm and b) reinforces the two circled zones.
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Wow, gotta love whale manipulation. But they can't escape the laws of Fibsycs.
Closeup of the small tf Purple fib, with extensions on both sides.
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Here we are, at my first possible buy zone. I did have a small limit buy in that zone (scalp size). not very confident it will fly, but had to take the shot.
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Pleasantly surprised by the bounce thus far. Not a huge bounce but bears stopped selling and bulls bought some (including yours truly)
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Scalp well in profit. It bounced exactly where I had hoped, broke through first resistance above, not up against the next resistance band. I might take some profit here soon.
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Possible next targets. If buying power persists, price should break 7500 walls and go a little higher.
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Another support established at 7350?
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Well here we are at those ''Several Strong Fibs''
Zoomed out, that zone is quite familiar. There is a lot of resistance here. BUT the fact that bulls are tapping the ceiling repeatedly increases the chances of breaking it.
If price does break higher, it might be headed for 7800, the next fib confluence.
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OOPS, typo above, meant to type: 7600 next as in ''might be headed for 7600.
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Spiked above zone to take out Bear Stops, then dove again to take out longs.
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Hmm, maybe this?
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There were two distinct impulses up (blue and green). Those two dropped ''stones'' caused ripples upwards in price. Notice the precise touches of the various Fib ratios of each impulse. The next important confluence is 8370 - 8415 zone (rounded)
Thanks for recent update, fib levels working well.
mortdiggiddy
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6800 - 7000 next possible buy zone
m59
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Awesome scalp! How do you determine a stop loss when entering on a limit order at a fib level as you did here?
darkandblue
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hehe, how about that :)
darkandblue
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how about this one mate
EuroMotif
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@retiringsoon1, Nice chart!
Like your EW counts a lot, much better than mine on this recent move.
And I love your Fib analysis. The Golden Ratio is pretty much my only trading formula now!
darkandblue
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@euromotives, cheers mate, appreciate it! as the bull move was strong maybe the B wave will go to .786
UnknownUnicorn2421992
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Epic fibs and EW as usual :)
You might want to check this out, I found strange action on the CBOE /XBT futures. Might explain the rise in price over last few days.
EuroMotif
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@Wacc, Very interesting!
I see you have very detailed analysis in your Idea above.
I will study the details and ask any questions in that Idea, but am fascinated
Wavema
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Thank you ! I was buying in the meantime I've seen a buy signal :)