MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
430 8 1
We broke through the 4hr and 12hr Ichimoku clouds . Time for the 24hr to fall again?
seems you were right
Speed IgorRasovic
I think it may still be too soon to tell. I think we'll know by the 24th though whether this trend line is done.
For next 3 hr, diff jump 19%, I think BTC price will also jump minimum 10%,
and perhaps now is the right moment to open position.
At the time, I was hoping to see a fabled bounce off the top of the 12hr cloud deck, and continue pushing upwards through the 4hr resistance into the clear. Especially with the strong bullish 24hr cross of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen which hasn't happened since 5/20 on the run up to 136 after the bubble. Instead it broke in the exact opposite direction as the (unconvincing) 12hr MACD indicated it might, through the 12hr deck and is currently riding the bottom of the 4hr cloud.

My position is still active as it could bounce off the bottom of the 4hr cloud again like it did on the 16th and get back on track. It has a lot of 12hr resistance to still push down through. I wouldn't be surprised to see it swing back up, but we are also closing in on the bearish 24hr cloud with not much time left. If we don't hit it along my trend line, I doubt it will break through.
I think trend going down to 40 USD
Speed IgorRasovic
If we don't make it back into the 110 range on this bounce up, I can agree with that, though I don't see us stopping at 40USD this time.
even lower? :)
Speed wonkytonky
I think so. At 40USD, I think people will start to seriously reconsider the viability of virtual, math based currencies -- especially BTC. Current enthusiasts may start looking into alternatives such as LTC which doesn't have some of the limitations BTC has.

Also, the sustainability of mining BTC likely comes into the picture. GPU mining is already dead with the current difficulty. It needs a BTC price of ~150USD to be break even with no difficulty increase and you'd likely never recover the cost of new equipment. Avalon looks defunct at the moment. BFL won't ship anything in quantity until it is more profitable to ship than to mine, probably in the 30USD range. ASICMiner will continue for awhile but at 40USD even they may not be able to cover the cost of producing more chips. So basically you'll be stuck with a few people owning expensive ASICs and dumping any BTC to try to recover costs.

If it reaches parity with LTC, then I think BTC will likely lose as LTC mining doesn't have the hardware access limitations that BTC mining does.
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