So, following the theory that we are repeating the 2017 cycle but with the plus that we also are repeating the divergences from that year, on my previous ideas I put the short target down to 42k/30k based on the smaller divergences results: the price correction coming out from the divergences take the price down to the same price as when the divergence started. BUT that rule didnt apply for the big 2017 divergence, it only applied to the smaller divergences within the biggest one .
According to that same rule, we already touched the bottom price for this current divergence.
It only worries me the fact that this last divergence took a long time to develop and we are kinda stuck on the same price. Anyway we should start the bullrun again from now on.
Sir we are right on as expected that was a 60% correction from 8k to 5k .
I project roughly the same 40-60% correction before upswing.
Wonderful man thank you. Just reaffirms my suspicions that we was in wave 5 and down to 24500 -28800 is viable before upswing.
Patience will pay off
The 720 chart what is that weekly monthly ? I'm thinking 8-12 weeks to hit low. Then start cycle again
ChangoMan
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@Legalizedhustler, Maybe we still on the tight rope for the weekend as the RSI still very close to the level 30, if it breaks that support the price mighth fall down to the 42k I was suspecting but according to the yellow bar supports for each divergence the price should not fall any lower.
BUT... As I said, it worries me the fact that this last divergence took way too long and there was almost no growth on the price between the 2 divergences as in 2017:
2021 TOP 2: 58k
2021 TOP 3: 65k
2017 TOP 2: 5K
2017 TOP 3: 8K
thats pretty much sideways
Also I dont know if this is correlated to the fact that Cardano is aiming down according to this idea I posted before
ThinkLikeaWhaleTLAW
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@ChangoMan,
Thank you for everything we don't have a daily close today at 55-56 we will start beginning stages of death cross.
MA and yes I speculate a bounce off 40-44 to go to 48-52k then down to 26k. Followed by 300% bull run to 104k august- October ish.
I'll play the swings
ianrdouglas
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@Legalizedhustler, Anecdotal, but just an observation: If BTC hits 26k, Michael Saylor will be the laughing stock of Wall Street, even though his average buy price is 24.2k. 64 to 26 would be a -59% drop, which is only 10% shy of an average bear market bottom. So how BTC would get to 100k and with whose money by August-October escapes me.
ThinkLikeaWhaleTLAW
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@ianrdouglas,
Could hit 72k first before that correction.
Familiar with Wyckoff mode?
I figured 65k was blowoff top. There's alot of different factors and different signs showings on many indicators about how movement of bitcoin will be going forward.
Could be just the year of the alts and btc dominance stays down and acts as almost like a stabilizer with just the 32% corrections all along throughout the year.
Many different things market is showing
ianrdouglas
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@Legalizedhustler, The blow-off top should be a frenzy. Not boring and uncertain like BTC has been. When the top comes in, I expect it to be headline news, and in particular to see a narrative emerge where pundits are predicting 100k, 150k near term. It's retail that are invited to buy the top. Second, historically, alts explode into the blow-off top. They all dropped with BTC from 64, so that's further — somewhat anecdotal — evidence to believe the top is not yet in. BTC.D is at levels we can't ignore. Alt season is here. Alts just wait for BTC to stop ranging or correcting in order to start their real runs. I think we're going to see the beginning of this take off very soon. One week, more or less. As soon as BTC shows signs of real upside momentum. Like in February, I expect the beginning to be slow, but then to really pick up. Corrections along the way according to the seven wave structure. But the seventh wave is the most parabolic of the seven. The crescendo (the seventh wave within the seventh wave) will be fast and obvious, at which point alts decouple and continue to fly as BTC drops more than 40% I'd say. When BTC peaks in its retracement rally, it's over. BTC.D will be in a new pattern at that point. Then we'll see how deep the bear market will go, and if a fast and deep correction will segue into a second peak for BTC this year. It's possible, but I'm also doubtful. That said, what BTC does now, in the coming few weeks, may give us a clue as to what it's capable of later in the year. None of this is certain. None of it may happen. It's just the ideal model of what I'm looking to see unfold.
ThinkLikeaWhaleTLAW
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@ianrdouglas,
I agree. 21day corrective cycle now.
Inverse head and shoulders on the 1 day.
So 56-60k retest 44-48k
Up to 72 then retest 56-60k range.
Alot of things. Reality is its taking us 3 months to accept a 50k bitcoin. How much longer to accept a 75k bitcoin.
Psychological more than anything and retail as you say. Would rather buy a .50 alt with possibility of run up instead of a 60k bitcoin.
But dont realize when the bear comes if they go up 500% on alts they'll go down 450% when the bear settles.
Part of the game. The mania is real.
Good talk. Enjoy the back and forth. I try to map out all scenarios going forward so I'm prepared even for a 15k bitcoin. Nothing surprises me. Been in the crypto game long enough to know that.
And along with the mania of retail. The bubble just inflating and inflating amd inflating.
Smart money was in 4-20k .
The 39 month or younger coins are starting to be sold.
It'll be a gradual selloff. As memtioned bitcoin maybe act as stabilizer and just do a bunch 30% corrections.
Appreciate the talk.
I wanna make a post on bitcoin but so much to type and say I haven't yet cuz trying to condense it to explains scenarios
ianrdouglas
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@Legalizedhustler, For me, but I could be wrong, it's not psychology. The price is arbitrary. BTC could be ranging at 80 and some would deem it a psychological ceiling. Rather, in my view, it's simply about the cycle, and macro patterns that not even the largest whales can fully control. It's about backward momentum. The global spread of understanding. And how this unfolds and grows amid ebbs and flows that seem to have some level of proportional regularity, in particular relative to Fibonacci sequencing.
BTC has been in a massive consolidation pattern since late February. If it were not ascending it would look exactly like Wyckoff. I think we're about the see the result, in a final parabolic upswing.
Agreed the crash will be big, for BTC and alts. Especially alts. And the cycle will repeat, and we'll back to where we are now in about 3-4 years. For me, hopefully better prepared, having seen some of this now close at hand.
Personally, I expect 20-25k to be the absolute base. But I wonder when we will see that, and for how long. I don't know about the end of the year. Very much focused only for the time being on what is looming upon us.
ThinkLikeaWhaleTLAW
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@ChangoMan,
I saw that chart when you posted it before. And incompletely agree with ADA with you I totally see it coming down to .30c range over time. Haven't broke it down myself completly so thats a speculative number I threw out but can see same thing.
I appreciate your work... U know that
I project roughly the same 40-60% correction before upswing.
Wonderful man thank you. Just reaffirms my suspicions that we was in wave 5 and down to 24500 -28800 is viable before upswing.
Patience will pay off
The 720 chart what is that weekly monthly ? I'm thinking 8-12 weeks to hit low. Then start cycle again