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BernhardAnalytics
Mar 15, 2017 3:50 PM

short window opens at 16:00, 18th this month.  

OKCOIN:BTCUSD3M240

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short window opens at 16:00, 18th this month. watch out.

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short window opened before I expected, but it was good too, shorted below 1200.
1086 has support.
right now wait for settlement, in 1 hour.

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closed half short at 1086, if 1055 to 1086 cant hold, we will be seeing 720 soon.

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btc is always too fast.
1086 good exit for me.

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if it fall again, next target is 1015 and 920.

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1055, daily support, hedge here.

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btc is a bit too fast, sometimes I am behind, especially when I have 5 accounts....

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if go long, just once, dont keep trying. also dont close the short yet. wait.

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second target reached, 1018.

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if 1020 cant have a huge pull back, then wait for 925, I might want to buy at 925.

Trade closed: target reached

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925 on the way. I am ready to buy here and close short here.
stop loss is 910 to 900.

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below daily support now, and didn't even bonce at daily support.
Comments
IvanLabrie
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The quarterly futures settlement move?

Looks like we can go down indeed:


But only if we move under today's low, today, or tomorrow...otherwise I wouldn't be too sure of a drop, and the market would probably do this:



(go nowhere)
BernhardAnalytics
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@IvanLabrie, impossible for btc hold at a high price for over 3 days.
IvanLabrie
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@BernhardAnalytics, " only if we move under today's low, today, or tomorrow"

We moved under the low again, looks like it will fall hard. I only hold 20% of my capital in BTC, sold most higher. I am hedging the remaining coins with ETHXBT longs with the same size.

What's your target?

I estimate we can get support at 1008, but not sure if it will hold.

Maybe 50% down from the top.
BernhardAnalytics
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@IvanLabrie, first target 1088, then 1055.
if 1055 cant hold, then I think 910.
BernhardAnalytics
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@IvanLabrie, after 910, then 804, 720.
720 can buy, no doubt. before 720, not sure about long.
IvanLabrie
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@BernhardAnalytics, Yes makes sense.
BernhardAnalytics
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@IvanLabrie, but as I said before, real support is 2691RMB, and dont say it's impossible.
IvanLabrie
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@BernhardAnalytics, oh, it's not impossible.

2753.96 to 2955.01 based on BTC China prices is the long term uptrend support. If it falls there, it will be the bottom 80% sure.

I don't know if it can get there now, we will need to wait and see how support acts at each level before it.
IvanLabrie
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This is how the long term chart looks for me.

There is a trend that should hit the target above, but, there's a chance of going down like I show here, to the support level you mentioned:



If we fall to that, it will be the bottom, but it will take until 2019 to hit the top target zone again maybe.

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Long term: Hold 20% of money at least and never sell...try to buy at long term support. Hedging like you do works well too.

And, by the way, great analysis ;)
IvanLabrie
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A few factors that can influence price:

-People's sentiment might be too bearish for price to fall too much soon, so maybe it just goes sideways between 1000 and 1300 for a while?

-The potential of Bitcoin miners to split between two differerent protocols scares everyone to death now. When will it be resolved and how?

-What would make more people lose?

Ideas?
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