BTC’s OCD means EMA by NYE

We all know the market has a little OCD. Certain levels it just has to touch before it’ll allow the next move.

On the monthly BTC chart, that level looks like the 9 EMA — and it’s lining up as a likely “must-tag” into month’s end.

Here’s the key observation:
• The monthly 9 EMA has been sliding down ~$2k–$3k per month.
• It’s already dropped from just over $100k last month to a little over ~$98k this month.
• Meanwhile, this month’s high / top wick area is ~94,500.

So right now there’s a gap: 9 EMA above, price wick below.

For the 9 EMA to “touch” the top of this month’s candle (~94,500), one of two things has to happen:
1. EMA drops to price (hard), or
2. Price rises to EMA (much easier).

To get the EMA to drop several thousand more this month, BTC would need a major dump (think the kind of move that drags the average down hard — i.e., ugly). That’s possible, but it’s the less probable path compared to a tag from price.

I built a simple little calculator/tool on my chart that estimates what price would need to do for an EMA tag — and based on that, the cleaner path is BTC pushing higher into month-end to meet the 9 EMA, then potentially setting up the next move (including a possible January fade).

We’re already in the final week of the month, and the tape is starting to look like that “EMA magnet” move could be underway.

Bias: Looking for a long into the 9 EMA tag into year-end — with eyes open for a potential January reversal setup after the touch.

Merry Christmas — consider it my gift to the chart watchers 🎁