Hey guys,
Hedgehog King is coming back. I have a lot to update and get updated on. I’m sure you’d like an explanation to my disappearance in the last 5 weeks:
- Since the beginning January of this year I had deep chronical depressions due to harsh life events/difficulties (Which was the reason why I acted so weird this year and wasn’t as active as I was before, it started very bad for me). It was hard on me to tag along and be with you, mentally. I tried to do my best when I could, but I gave up on myself as it got worse towards the end of March with my computer data wipe out and with my GF being hospitalized due to her harsh illness (not corona, thankfully, but other chronic illness which got worsen up to the point of a threat to her life).
- Difficult times bring difficult decisions, and I had to sacrifice some of my life activities – (Yes, my community as well) to focus on myself, and to be with my loved ones. Due to these events I had no way of getting online as well for the past month, but here I am again.
- I want to apologize to all who I disappointed/worried. I apologize especially to Bob, because due to the Corona events we had to halt our premium service, and he counted on me to get things back in control, but I bailed out on him with my disappearance. I deeply regretted it, but I knew he could handle things for a while.
- I will do what I can to fix things out. I don’t intend to delete/give-up on my main profile as I want to stay true to myself and to anyone who is going to follow me, nor on any of my groups for the same reasons, I will measure the amount of damage which I have done and the after effect and will recover, rebuild, and will achieve what was my first goal: to create a place for free knowledge and a good place to hang out in anything related to Crypto.
• I am personally recovering, depression is still there but I’m managing slowly and surely, my love is home and safe now, and I was able to restore some of my lost data after working on it for a long while.
• I do wish you all to have strong wills, and health, and mostly- happiness. I hope you can give me another chance to make it up to you guys, I never meant to harm and especially not to leave my fam’ permanently, I just was on a brick of collapse, seen only peach black, and couldn’t really deal with anything, I’m sure I was wrong to disappear like that but I just couldn’t bring myself to put some words on my struggles, and this depression caused me a lot of damage in RL as well.
• I’m currently going through every PM I received, and I will answer all questions forwarded to me in PM and in the groups, also I will be highly active and will go through all activity which I missed out.
• I have a lot of catching up to do and a lot to organize, and after re-evaluate everything I will announce my next moves.…
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Meanwhile though, I collected some of my thoughts of the day on the market, shall I start with some TA/FA/SA 😉?:
- SA/FA:
Market recovered pretty fast from this crush. But is it really a recovery? No one can know for sure…
1. Economy: We have uncertainty about this entire world WhoVirus, and no matter what is the truth, the economy got hit badly, and the after effects are far from over, in-fact I think this is just the beginning, with Oil crush, the USD hyperinflation, and the overall crisis in the economy due to the lockdowns we are going to see (Already seeing) riots, businesses collapse, banks shutting down, maybe even war?, and more… each of these brings big after effects and to protect yourselves it’s important to have assets, especially metals such as gold/silver. But will BTC thrive in all that mess? I don’t think this is the safe heaven where rich people/industries will run to, sure they will hold some little percentage of it just for the fun of it, but not as a real security protection.
2. Trending: On the other side I seen more traffic of people on some social media pages related to Crypto, so my guess is that this happens due to the incoming halving, but is this enough? I’m not sure, because google trends doesn’t show any changes, isn’t this weird? Well this is accumulation phase, people are buying BTC because they are sure that halving will kill it for them, but I think that those who really moving the gears behind the scenes just waiting for more excitement before they crush it ones again as history showed us.
3. Sentiment: Sure it looks like fear/greed is 27 and looks more positive by the day, BUT!, from some analysis I have done I came to conclusion that traders are further net-long than yesterday and then last week on BTC, and way more net-long then net-short on ETH, and still more net-long then net-short on XRP – I think ETH will lead this fall, we will see some sort of crush/correction in the near week/two (which will also be very natural to the last price movement in the market), and depends on the sentimental reaction to the correction we should know if we gonna drop further or not.
4. Overall: I don’t see Bitcoin holding a rally, not atm (despite the incoming halving), not for the past year and not yet this year (part of the reason why I was mostly bearish last year and got most of the critical falls), every-time there’s a rally in BTC there is somebody selling into it, there is a major supply overhanging this market (Yes, still), and those who are selling are patient, they selling between the rallies, and eventually will sell between the dips (Maybe already happening since we hit that 14k), and I still think there is a lot of time before the halving effects will really come into effect (5-7 months), so for now best thing to do is accumulate BTC despite the price (Which is what I’m doing on my long term portfolio), and focus on shorting it in trades (Which is what I’m going to do now and between rallies), I won’t be convinced that this is a bull run, not until we pass the 10500 followed by trend and until we see real volume and OBV support behind it.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- Some simple TA:
1. We are right above weekly e21, and we might see 1 more strong candle towards the 9300, but the volume is too low and getting lower from week to week, it suggests that we need to see a pullback. 7 green candles is enough reason to focus on shorts.
2. We are currently above daily e50, and right under daily e200, from my perspective if we suppress e200 (7870) then this would be strong push up towards 9300 before the next correction (This will also move some indicators such as RSI to overbought), a rejection of the e200 will bring us back to e50 (7270) which is also the daily cloud, this should be a very healthy and good correction before the next move.
3. We have very low volume but OBV continues to surprise me (on both Huobi and Binance), my problem with OBV atm is that against Tether I don’t trust it but Tether might lead this push so I can’t know for sure… it shows that even if we are going to see the correction, we might have enough buying power to push back up right after and easily push (and maybe even suppress) to 9300, before that the ones who led this move towards the 10500 were Asia (Mostly Hubei), but now it looks like the ones leading this move are the west (Mostly Binance).
• In overall, to me it looks like on the short term (few days-2weeks), we might see another push up, but we most likely going to see a pull back either right after or even in next few days.
• The mid term is very bullish, but real bull run for me will only be after we suppressed 10500 with enough confirmations, I do think that we will see at-least 9300 before the crush (I also suspect that it will happen either right before or during the cross of the daily e50 and e200 which should be bullish, but might play out as yet another bull trap).
• The long term, after the crush from 9300, BTC will either enter an accumulation phase, or keep going down for a few months, and only after 5-7 months we will start seeing the real effect from the halving to start the next bull run, suppress 20k, and continue towards 35k-45k (First destination, we might continue to second destination to around 80-120k…
• I shorted it from 7745, and sl is at 7845, first TP is at 7375.
Hedgehog King is coming back. I have a lot to update and get updated on. I’m sure you’d like an explanation to my disappearance in the last 5 weeks:
- Since the beginning January of this year I had deep chronical depressions due to harsh life events/difficulties (Which was the reason why I acted so weird this year and wasn’t as active as I was before, it started very bad for me). It was hard on me to tag along and be with you, mentally. I tried to do my best when I could, but I gave up on myself as it got worse towards the end of March with my computer data wipe out and with my GF being hospitalized due to her harsh illness (not corona, thankfully, but other chronic illness which got worsen up to the point of a threat to her life).
- Difficult times bring difficult decisions, and I had to sacrifice some of my life activities – (Yes, my community as well) to focus on myself, and to be with my loved ones. Due to these events I had no way of getting online as well for the past month, but here I am again.
- I want to apologize to all who I disappointed/worried. I apologize especially to Bob, because due to the Corona events we had to halt our premium service, and he counted on me to get things back in control, but I bailed out on him with my disappearance. I deeply regretted it, but I knew he could handle things for a while.
- I will do what I can to fix things out. I don’t intend to delete/give-up on my main profile as I want to stay true to myself and to anyone who is going to follow me, nor on any of my groups for the same reasons, I will measure the amount of damage which I have done and the after effect and will recover, rebuild, and will achieve what was my first goal: to create a place for free knowledge and a good place to hang out in anything related to Crypto.
• I am personally recovering, depression is still there but I’m managing slowly and surely, my love is home and safe now, and I was able to restore some of my lost data after working on it for a long while.
• I do wish you all to have strong wills, and health, and mostly- happiness. I hope you can give me another chance to make it up to you guys, I never meant to harm and especially not to leave my fam’ permanently, I just was on a brick of collapse, seen only peach black, and couldn’t really deal with anything, I’m sure I was wrong to disappear like that but I just couldn’t bring myself to put some words on my struggles, and this depression caused me a lot of damage in RL as well.
• I’m currently going through every PM I received, and I will answer all questions forwarded to me in PM and in the groups, also I will be highly active and will go through all activity which I missed out.
• I have a lot of catching up to do and a lot to organize, and after re-evaluate everything I will announce my next moves.…
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Meanwhile though, I collected some of my thoughts of the day on the market, shall I start with some TA/FA/SA 😉?:
- SA/FA:
Market recovered pretty fast from this crush. But is it really a recovery? No one can know for sure…
1. Economy: We have uncertainty about this entire world WhoVirus, and no matter what is the truth, the economy got hit badly, and the after effects are far from over, in-fact I think this is just the beginning, with Oil crush, the USD hyperinflation, and the overall crisis in the economy due to the lockdowns we are going to see (Already seeing) riots, businesses collapse, banks shutting down, maybe even war?, and more… each of these brings big after effects and to protect yourselves it’s important to have assets, especially metals such as gold/silver. But will BTC thrive in all that mess? I don’t think this is the safe heaven where rich people/industries will run to, sure they will hold some little percentage of it just for the fun of it, but not as a real security protection.
2. Trending: On the other side I seen more traffic of people on some social media pages related to Crypto, so my guess is that this happens due to the incoming halving, but is this enough? I’m not sure, because google trends doesn’t show any changes, isn’t this weird? Well this is accumulation phase, people are buying BTC because they are sure that halving will kill it for them, but I think that those who really moving the gears behind the scenes just waiting for more excitement before they crush it ones again as history showed us.
3. Sentiment: Sure it looks like fear/greed is 27 and looks more positive by the day, BUT!, from some analysis I have done I came to conclusion that traders are further net-long than yesterday and then last week on BTC, and way more net-long then net-short on ETH, and still more net-long then net-short on XRP – I think ETH will lead this fall, we will see some sort of crush/correction in the near week/two (which will also be very natural to the last price movement in the market), and depends on the sentimental reaction to the correction we should know if we gonna drop further or not.
4. Overall: I don’t see Bitcoin holding a rally, not atm (despite the incoming halving), not for the past year and not yet this year (part of the reason why I was mostly bearish last year and got most of the critical falls), every-time there’s a rally in BTC there is somebody selling into it, there is a major supply overhanging this market (Yes, still), and those who are selling are patient, they selling between the rallies, and eventually will sell between the dips (Maybe already happening since we hit that 14k), and I still think there is a lot of time before the halving effects will really come into effect (5-7 months), so for now best thing to do is accumulate BTC despite the price (Which is what I’m doing on my long term portfolio), and focus on shorting it in trades (Which is what I’m going to do now and between rallies), I won’t be convinced that this is a bull run, not until we pass the 10500 followed by trend and until we see real volume and OBV support behind it.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- Some simple TA:
1. We are right above weekly e21, and we might see 1 more strong candle towards the 9300, but the volume is too low and getting lower from week to week, it suggests that we need to see a pullback. 7 green candles is enough reason to focus on shorts.
2. We are currently above daily e50, and right under daily e200, from my perspective if we suppress e200 (7870) then this would be strong push up towards 9300 before the next correction (This will also move some indicators such as RSI to overbought), a rejection of the e200 will bring us back to e50 (7270) which is also the daily cloud, this should be a very healthy and good correction before the next move.
3. We have very low volume but OBV continues to surprise me (on both Huobi and Binance), my problem with OBV atm is that against Tether I don’t trust it but Tether might lead this push so I can’t know for sure… it shows that even if we are going to see the correction, we might have enough buying power to push back up right after and easily push (and maybe even suppress) to 9300, before that the ones who led this move towards the 10500 were Asia (Mostly Hubei), but now it looks like the ones leading this move are the west (Mostly Binance).
• In overall, to me it looks like on the short term (few days-2weeks), we might see another push up, but we most likely going to see a pull back either right after or even in next few days.
• The mid term is very bullish, but real bull run for me will only be after we suppressed 10500 with enough confirmations, I do think that we will see at-least 9300 before the crush (I also suspect that it will happen either right before or during the cross of the daily e50 and e200 which should be bullish, but might play out as yet another bull trap).
• The long term, after the crush from 9300, BTC will either enter an accumulation phase, or keep going down for a few months, and only after 5-7 months we will start seeing the real effect from the halving to start the next bull run, suppress 20k, and continue towards 35k-45k (First destination, we might continue to second destination to around 80-120k…
• I shorted it from 7745, and sl is at 7845, first TP is at 7375.
