For August we may see a few upticks with an overall trend down to test critical support levels at 6800 or lower. A failure to support at 6800 leads to 6400 - 5800 (again) with a possible range down to 5400 that last week of August, before our next long term uptrend.
Any of this would change with ETF status updates or other coverage that adds interested buyers or FUD.
This is a trend-based analysis with the typical methods and a few that seem to be less commonly published:
- Fibonacci Retracement, Arcs, and Circles
- Trend Based Fibonacci Time
- GANN, Sine, Pattern and Trend lines (Long-term and Short-term)
I’ve removed most of the above items for clarity and I’ll add a more detailed version below. For short to medium timeframes I utilize MTF, RSI, Stoch, MACD, EW, as well as other scripts and data from 'G' search trends, crypto roadmaps, futures calendars, news, etc.
This is my first published chart, please keep that in mind if you care to comment.
- Cheers
Here's one of the detailed charts:
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A close today below 6800 will continue our downtrend toward 6K to 5.5K.
Today BTC prices fell below 7K when the SEC announced consideration for the VanEck ETF is delayed from August 10th to Sept. 30th.
On the flip side, 'G' trends shows the search terms "bitcoin ETF" has remained near the recent July ATH that was slightly more than December. If you follow this, the search trends show interest that can mean new buyers, so the trend chart has followed Bitcoin prices.
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We've dropped to the $6200 level today (bottom white H&S line). A short uptick to test $6800 resistance (bottom red GANN) is likely.
Buying in the $6000 to 6200 range may get a quick 10% return, however a failure to maintain 6800 or above seems probable since Friday has been our historic low point for many of the recent weeks.
Barring any big news, we should keep dropping to the orange bottom trend line. As we have seen, any ETF news or hype can shift the trend for the day/week.
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This is an important day for our closing BTC price.
We've tested the Grey GANN over the last 3 days and finally pushed over. Above the Grey GANN is Bull territory, below it is Bear range.
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Perhaps we get both green 6800 and orange 5500 targets. The previous moves up have been coming back to orange line eventually.
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I'm adding an update for the last 10 days of August and the levels we could see going into September and October.
Snapshot ->
Published -> Same as snapshot, adjust view for hidden levels.
"Go Long" signals are appearing on the 4H and 8H indicators, so we should see the rise to 6800-7K early this week.
The SEC ETF speculation could help us rally even further and earlier than expected, however without SEC news a squeeze down to 5750 next week would be expected based on the GANN and Fib Time Trends.
--> August 23rd is the next due date for the SEC consideration for the Proshares BTC ETF.
The previous ETF decision dates led to a run up in the 1-2 weeks before the expected announcement.
A "yes" would/should send us into "Bull" territory above 10.2K in a short time.
A "no" would/should send us back toward the orange bottom GANN line, currently at 5750.
pablo36
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The detailed chart is quite interesting, thank you for sharing.
So I take you not buying back at this level?
I separate each crypto purchase into 5 to 10 orders (10 to 20 percent), so far, one of ten buy orders between 5-7K has triggered.
That strategy is from successful traders who “ladder” their buy/sell orders, it has worked well to get a good average price while not missing the “tops" and “bottoms".
The same laddered approach to sell takes profits on the way up, although the gains are smaller, since using this I haven't sold for a loss.
Buying the bottom and selling the top is the goal for some, however calling those levels is a challenge that can lead to missed opportunities.
My goal is to increase a long position over time by swing trading the 10-30% dips and upticks on the week/month timeframes.
The SEC ETF speculation could help us rally even further and earlier than expected, however without SEC news a squeeze down to 5750 next week would be expected based on the GANN and Fib Time Trends.
--> August 23rd is the next due date for the SEC consideration for the Proshares BTC ETF.
The previous ETF decision dates led to a run up in the 1-2 weeks before the expected announcement.
A "yes" would/should send us into "Bull" territory above 10.2K in a short time.
A "no" would/should send us back toward the orange bottom GANN line, currently at 5750.