Longs continue building a potential ascending triangle. Succinctly put, we are watching longs build up toward the resistance at 33200-33500. A bullish movement in price should see a surge in Longs as they breach that resistance, resulting in an acceleration of that bullish price momentum.
I have more faith in excess in shorts leading to bullish price surge in the form of a short squeeze, than an excess in longs giving the shorts the upper hand
Chris_Inks
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@pietersielie, I'm not saying that an excess in longs will create a bearish reaction via a long squeeze. What I'm saying is that bullish price momentum should give Longs a surge that will finally breach the resistance noted above. In doing so, that surge should then result in an encouragement of stronger price appreciation. If I'm misunderstanding your comment, let me know. I appreciate your thoughts.
pietersielie
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@TexasWestCapital, I understand what you are saying, you are seeing an ascending triangle in longs which you believe can push longs over the resistance and give price the boost it needs to form a swing low in the market, and a leg to the upside. This is possible. I am saying i would be more bullish and convinced this would be a swing low that we are seeing now, if shorts were more than longs. I short squeeze is a better trigger for a swing low, than a long breakout. Since an excess in longs just gives the shorts the opportunity to squeeze them, and cause a plunge.
Chris_Inks
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@pietersielie, Okay, just making sure I was understanding. I agree, a short squeeze would be much better at this point (as a matter of fact, I called that short squeeze during our live stream in April when everyone was convinced price was dropping further). However, I don't believe the short squeeze is a necessity. A drop below $5900 would have me watching price for the downside and, of course we don't trade without confirmations. This just gives us something to watch as Bitcoin dominance grows, BTC buy % drops below 3%, and Google Trends for Bitcoin rises. Long squeezes are much more rare than short squeezes due to the nature of markets (markets tend to trend upward). As such, shorting is necessarily contrary to market movement, hence the short squeeze's significance. The idea is that being wrong bullishly at least makes it more likely that you will get your money back and/or profit whereas being wrong bearishly almost guarantees loss. Long squeezes are much more prevalent in illiquid assets.
shane.richardson85
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@TexasWestCapital, @pietersielie, refreshing to see constructive discussion and respectful differences in opinion in TV comments for once. Thank you both for your insights.