Shorts (BTCUSDSHORTS) are nearing the high from 10/9. Additional short sellers might be coming late to the party.... or maybe not. Longs (BTCUSDLONGS) have finally begun their fall, but they haven't fallen miraculously (yet), especially considering long interest (BTCUSDLONGS) was at an all-time high! What this says to me is the perma-bulls maybe have continued taking out margin positions long (potentially leveraged).
We are seeing some sell side pressure now, from those long positions being closed. That being said the Long interest is still very high. I view this as a strong potential for a squeeze and cascading selloff. The individuals trading margin recently on bitfinex are probably not the hodlers, so the impending squeeze, imo, will accelerate the sell-side pressure. The long interest was likely run-up by perma-bulls who like to "Buy the dip, bro". As many of those individuals are leveraged, I anticipate a mass exodus from Long positions as the price decline further squeezes them. That may in turn bring some late-to-the-party short-sellers to the table. If we test or pass 6k, it will be due to this cascade effect. Otherwise, I think 6k is strong psychological support.
*This information represents only my opinion, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell*
Nice analysis - I suspect you're on the money with this, as every 'bro on the block' craps his pampers and dumps his moonball positions. Crazy days these are ;)
Looks like the Long squeeze I mentioned is finally playing out on most recent bar. Seeing some more dramatic downside movements in BTC, and especially in other coins (ETH, LTC, XRP, etc.)