Fibs and forecast/price estimate are mainly done just out of interest to see what happens. But there are various things to support a short squeeze may be setting up.
Let's look at some things we can see in a short squeeze in a developing/developed downtrend and how they relate to BTC.
Squeezes often a preluded by ranges. People given time to decide it's a big level. Think a low is in. Then think the breaking of this level is highly significant and will tell them the direction of the near term trend. Has to be time to establish important level.
Obvious devastating news. When a trend is turning usually there are reasons everyone knows it will continue. Like the El Salvador news at the top, the FTX news may mark the bottom.
Everyone needs to know the move is continuing. There needs to have been time to establish an important price. Mis forecasts of the low. Bug failure of implied important support and w/ news everyone will understand is bearish. It becomes a short squeeze by attracting shorts.
Our spike low comes in butterfly form. A known false breakout pattern which also has the properties of the last move always being the strongest, usually supported by news. Shorts before this bull pattern fails may be very untimely. Butterflies come at highs/lows, if working.
The idea of a Cryptocrash and it being inevitable this is going lower is deeply rooted now. But for us to not have some significant bounce around this level would be improbable. From very early on there were ways to define this 15K area as somewhere we could bounce/range.
I think BTC has made an important break and this break has increased the chance its in a multi yr bear market - but if it is, it can easily have 6 month + bull traps and in these types of traps stocks often double. Something volatile like BTC could easily do a few 100%.
I think there's speculative value long here with stops under the low to get out the way early if there's a run-away train - but more importantly, I think this is a risky area to be short w/ wide stops. If shorting, I'd think it's best to use tight stops.
The conditions for a short squeeze are all here. Terrible news in the headlines, a narrative established over time beat down in hours. A big exit from bulls and rush in of bears. All concurrently coming on levels a bounce always seemed probable.
I've somehow found your post just today and it's mindblowing. Amazing job!
brncaholic
⋅
at HP.... Please don't let clowns discourage you, your work is much appreciated by many who I'm sure never post...
holeyprofit
⋅
@brncaholic, I do not mind people having different opinions about markets. Mine are not always correct and it's the variety of opinions that make the market work.
I'm just sharing things I hope can be useful.
GamottoMalakas
⋅
wtf
marcolopes
⋅
@holeyprofit this post needs an update... it won't load new data
holeyprofit
⋅
@marcolopes, IDK how to update it. I posted this after the SBF thing when crypto was at the low. The shorts chart crashed.
Astroc
⋅
now it rather looks like it would like to blow off
brncaholic
⋅
at Mr. Dodger...I'm a follower that has thrown flowers many times his way and due to market conditions and my frustrations ran my mouth only 1x and will never do it again. No one is perfect but I haven't found anyone better to follow than HP so if approaching 50 years old has you down and without the nest egg you had hoped for, then I suggest you take up golf to keep your mind occupied.