We are all obsessed with the direction of price which we can't control and don't care enough attention to what we can control, such as our position sizing and action plan if the certain targets are met. That's why i'm always providing my bullish targets and i'll review these on a weekly perspective.
We just got a pump on the last 2 hours before daily close with low volume (does that look eal to you?). This is the expected short term move i mentioned in my previous post.
Remember, price follows liquidation and that's what's happening to late shorters now, unlike me - the early shorter at 40k :) They are getting squeezed because they sold at support in a red candle. So always sell on a green candle when everyone is bullish at the top!
Right now the first resistance above sits at historically strong weekly level 34.678 and the support below at February Low 32.328
And the game is about the monthly close.
If we get monthly close: - Above Feb Low 32.328, i'll consider this a sign of strength - NOT before. - Above 34.678 the weekly resistance, i'll consider this bullish - NOT before.
But we still have one week until the monthly close. If we get above May Close at 37.253 or even 36.500 next week, it's a bullish sign.
If these happen to be true, then the re-distribution may get invalidated.
While i don't think these will happen, it still can happen and i can't control this. But i have an action plan based on these targets and that's what matters.
Apart from the bullish targets, you want to look at the relationship between UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) in April and LPSY (Last Point Of Supply) in May. Everybody turned bullish by the end of April and thought we were going to 100k. In reality, this was the LPSY in the overbought condition before the huge markdown.
Now look at the UTAD in June. The same LPSY could be in the making before going down to 20k's if not lower.
I took the UTAD levels as the touching points of the down trend channel (blue zone) and extended up to LPSY for the overbought area (gray zone). That is why i'm not turning bullish unless the price gets above the gray zone and it's a moving target.
Best.
PS. We got a reversal bar on the P&f chart as well. I'll send an update from that post.
40k! So glad that I went against sentiment. sold at 39700 and hoping to hop back in at 35k for a ride up to 50.
ffflu
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Thank you, reading your posts over the past couple months is a real education. It’s helping me get out of alternating between fomo and deer-in-the-headlights. You’re showing how to have a plan with various bullish or bearish conditions to be met. I mean, we all know this is how it’s supposed to be done, but it’s a lot easier said than done. Following you laying out the case at each point as we go along has really been helping me. Best of TV, seriously.
BitcoinMillio18
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@ffflu, thank you. I'm thinking of Bitcoin as a person who is asking for my life savings. He needs to prove that it will go up with meeting certain targets and i will buy the oversold condition after that.
showmeyourtrade
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you predicted incorrectly on this one man
BTCmillio18FAN
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Do you think we are facing a bullish scenario after the last pump?
Ether2020
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Absolutely correct! Well done my friend. Normally the prices would have been lower for a long time but with the unlimited printing of Dollars and Euro's with the trillions what is happening right now. This money is injected directly into the markets because the major funds are borrowing at unimaginably low interest rates. As soon as interest rates start to rise, the party on the stock markets is over, but when will interest rates rise? In Europe this is very difficult because of the many debts that have been accumulated. In the US it is the same but because this is the world currency it does not matter how high the debt actually is. It can always go higher.
Does this additional money go into the cryptos as well? Not like in the stock market because the intrinsic value of cryptos is zero. But because of all kinds of new constrcutions with big investment banks, I suspect it is happening indirectly anyway. So this does have an impact on pricing. We will see it soon!
I think it can continue to "rally" on low volumes because of the general sentiment with ongoing Q3 stonk earnings. We get major tech companies starting next week thru the first 10 days of Aug. Will be some major MACRO catalysts to either make or break over the next couple of weeks, I feel. Thanks for sharing and keep up the good work.
BitcoinMillio18
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@inversevega, thanks, after earnings i expect a pull back in general.
vc22
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So according to this chart you think that there should be a rejection off ~34250?
Also, do you ever use the stochastic RSI as an indicator? Any insight on how it looks now for Bitcoin if it’s relevant for you? If not, feel free to explain why or why not as I’m always learning. :)