Bitcoin / TetherUS
Education

A profitable strategy. 0 of 1,000 prop-firm evaluations passed.

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Funded-trading programs ("prop firms") let a trader use the firm's money after passing an evaluation: hit a profit target while staying inside strict loss limits, within a set number of days.

I tested Flawless Victory Strategy (by Trabor_Namor), published, default settings, BTCUSDT, 15-minute chart, about 9 years of data. The backtest shows a $250,627 profit and a 70% win rate. On paper, it looks fundable.

I simulated 1,000 evaluation attempts using a common rule set: 5% max daily loss, 10% max total loss, 10% profit target, inside 30 days, minimum 4 trading days.

Here is how often each single rule was satisfied, on its own:
• Time limit: 99.6% of the time
• Max daily loss limit: 69% of the time
• Minimum trading days: 51% of the time
• Max total loss limit: 31% of the time
• Profit target: 28% of the time

None of these numbers looks catastrophic by itself. But an evaluation does not ask "can you pass one rule." It asks "can you pass all of them, in the same attempt." Across 1,000 simulated attempts, the strategy passed every rule at once: 0% of the time.

Why this matters: a backtest can look profitable and still fail the exact test that decides whether it gets funded. Passing several risk rules at once is much harder than passing any one of them — a strategy needs to control drawdown, hit the target, and do it within the time limit, all in the same run. Looking at each rule in isolation hides how much harder the combined bar really is.

How to check your own strategy: run it against a funded-account rule set (most platforms support Monte Carlo-style simulation), and look at the combined pass rate, not each rule by itself.

Educational only. Not financial advice.

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