Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed.
2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure.
3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3. This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution.
4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time).
5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish.
6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives).
7) EQUILIBRIUM. This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area!
8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do.
As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
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So far the top of the DAILY FVG is perfectly respected. The fight is on.
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make it or break it level
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WEEKLY TENKAN RETEST IS A HUGE SIGNAL and 4H KIJUN BREAK IS IMPERATIVE
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We need to take out lows, and especially the daily cloud!
Your chart analysis and explanations make it easier to understand the market dynamics. I appreciate your insights and the clear presentation of your analysis.
Exceptional. I reached the same timeline. BTCUSD 4h may reach bottom between 2024-02-01 and 2024-02-11: (click to play)
Lexi_Is_Trading
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@day0, I'll always marvel at how various strategies and indicators all point to the same conclusions.
day0
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@Lexi_Is_Trading, I added strong support levels, but $36963 is short-term for 2024-02-11. I'm not sure if it will dip below $36963.
arvine11
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@day0 its very hard to believing that 36K will hold it will go much lower than you think.
day0
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@arvine11, Well this is why I showed the strong support lines from $27695 to $29330. Are you thinking that it will flash crash below $27000 in the next 90 days? I'm not saying this, but I'm just asking what you are seeing. I am very comfortable with $29000 as very low and $38000 as a very fair long-term market value (not to be confused with current market price).