BTC/USDT 4H chart

🔻 1. Trend – still down

You have a clear descending channel:
• Lower highs
• Lower lows
• Price is bouncing between trend lines

➡️ You are currently closer to the middle/upper part of the channel, which usually means:
👉 Higher probability of rejection than breakout

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📊 2. Key Levels

🟢 Resistance:
• 76,730 – 77,300 → first resistance zone (already tested)
• 78,500 → strong resistance + previous structure
• Upper channel line (approx. 77,500–78,000)

👉 If this doesn't break = declines resume

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🔴 Support:
• 75,600 → local support
• 74,900
• 74.100 → key low

👉 breakout of 75.6 = quick decline lower

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📉 3. Price action (candles)
• Large red candle (downward impulse)
• Then a weak rebound (small green candles)
➡️ classic bearish continuation setup

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⚡ 4. Stochastic RSI
• Going up (short-term momentum is rising)
• But:
👉 is not overbought yet
👉 so there could still be a small push up

➡️ BUT: in a downtrend, this is often just a correction

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🧠 5. Scenarios

❌ Baseline scenario (more likely)
• rejection at 76.7–77.3
• return to:
• 75.6
• then 74.9

👉 Classic short from resistance

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✅ Bullish scenario (less likely)

Condition:
• Breakout of 77.3 + hold
• Ideally, a 4-hour candle close above

Targets:
• 78.5
• Channel breakout = trend reversal