I was considering the action before a long term top, with the action we saw lately in equities and the bubble in altcoins, it is very hard to stay long #Bitcoin here. I don't think it's safe to hold long exposure for the time being, and there is a distinct chance this was a long term top. Buying the dip near 50k was rewarding but it is probably time to bank those gains and move on for some time. This could easily crash towards 43k, where a potential support area lies. Some people have orders around there due to a confluence of technical methods showing it as a buy. If long term trend is up, I'd suppose this area isn't hit, if it is hit, I would find it VERY strange if it bounces after pleasing people.
For the time being I will monitor this closely, but don't want to rush back into crypto until it is clear this breaks up and not down.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade closed manually
⋅
Either bottomed at support area here, or it forms a continuation signal for more downside next, but better to cover shorts for now. Elon's take was quite dumb, as we all know, and liquidations and sentiment resetting are good, specially if it gets people wanting to buy lower. I'm skeptical of stocks rallying further so I fear this could affect long term upside potential in #BTC, but, Nasdaq hit a support cluster and BTC could bounce, even if bear market rally...Will be vigilant to short again if needed.
Trade active
⋅
Weakness once again, and day is not over, long time to go. I think it's probably better to just sit in cash and wait for a clear picture.
Comment
⋅
Adjusted the previous top pattern to today's volatility, if we hit everyone's buy zone at 42k I expect to get continuation down overall. Weekly chart will get clearer over time, for now daily is bearish, and can flash continuation soon.
I bot back spot here, waiting for confirmation of either a bottom with alt rotation back to #BTC, or a bear market if we break lower soon.
Trade active
⋅
Best to wait in cash, this is failing to rebound strongly, intraday weakness observed here, likely the bearish trend is still in control. Alts also look terrible.
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
For this trade the target was hit, I'm in cash, and would suggest to wait for consolidation to reshort if shorting it. I'm short some alts.
Trade active
⋅
Bear market scenario is still highly likely, just hard to short BTC due to people constantly buying all dips even if lower.
Comment
⋅
People buy the 200d EMA, even though since inception of BLX data it has a 66.67% chance of predicting the start of a massive bear market run...
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
'People buy the 200d EMA, even though since inception of BLX data it has a 66.67% chance of predicting the start of a massive bear market run...'
Make that 70% chance since Bitcoin's inception...
Bear market scenario target zone hit, and ahead of time. This confirms a pattern like the 1987 stock market crash took place. It took a long time to base and recover from that crash but it was a lasting bottom from there onwards. Not sure it will be the same here, but interesting to determine what happens after. Either way, we likely will have time to discard this doesn't go lower, without having to buy higher, since people expect a V shaped recovery and basically everyone on Earth who could bought the dip again.
Comment
⋅
We can get some variation of this: a very frustrating decline not sharp enough and with enough pullbacks from dip buyers doing DCA on the way down and never giving up until it hits rock bottom over a long time.
Comment
⋅
The trade was perfect, shame I didn't post a bottom picking signal, things are a bit trickier than previous market cycles, but still mostly tradeable.
shorting bitcoin in a bull market.......LMAO!
way to go there, suicidal much?
only weak hands are being shook out now, I guess youre one of them.
institutions are buying and holding from OTC so their volume doesnt even hit the books.
looking at your previous charts though its pretty clear that you change your stance every week.
youre just guessing back and forth and are one of the easily manipulated....
fools sell their crypto in bull markets.
only fools.
we havent even seen the bottom for next bear cycle yet.
those of us who know how this market works have been expecting a retouch to weekly 10 or 20MA since february.
currently that means we need to retouch 45k area and this would be 100% expected and healthy for continuing the bull cycle we are in.
but i digress, if you want to skip out now in the mid accumulation phase of a supercycle bull market, by all means, im buying OTC so the lower the price goes the better deals I get.
Janinho
⋅
@ezpi, oh dear, your message alone makes me want to get out of crypto asap..self entitled and almost desperate, you can feel the nervousness..and i have been in this market most likely much longer than you
"those of us who know how this market works"..twat
and I am still long, but god you are douche and would love to see you getting rekt..and all the others moonboys
ezpi
⋅
@Janinho, uhhh....
ok....
not really sure if you are worth a response, but since im a nice guy....
All I was saying, was that it is emotions driving his posts, and easy social manipulation --- EG: what Musk just tweeted, causing people just like him to sell his cryptos.
These kinds of things only affect the foolish who 1) dont have long enough experience (or enough intelligence) to understand crypto and traditional finance markets; and 2) are not emotionally and quantitatively intelligent enough to control their emotions.
While children will read something like that and get offended, angry, hostile, rejection/deflection or w/e self-defense mechanism triggers for them.....intelligent adults will consider the meaning and - whether or not they agree - think about it.
Secondly - I am not a moonboy at all.
We have been long expecting a 44k area retouch. This coincides with the 10W MA *AND* the .382 FIB which bitcoin hasnt touched in a long time.....
It will be quite healthy for bitcoin to go back down as far as 44k. Even retouching the 20W MA around 39-40k would still be bull-market healthy retracement, which also corresponds to a 0.5 FIB zone.
Retracing 50% after pumping 600%? NOT A PROBLEM FOR ME! I have all my buy orders lined up, and they're starting to get filled.
I expect they will fill, at least half of them, over the next month.
Likewise, big and smart $$$$ is doing precisely that.
I own a fairly large tech company and crypto is a side thing for me, but I truly believe in it and even find ways to work with it. As a company CEO, similar to some of the names you know, I dont trade crypto daily so I am also only talking longterm. I'm not short term, and I'm not a trader. So if my posts dont make sense in context of trading - I totally understand that and agree: they dont.
I'll not answer your otherwise hostile insults as I know they are meaningless.
Janinho
⋅
@ezpi, good luck with your business and with your non-trading. I can only imagine the sense of self-entitlement you must have a work.
ezpi
⋅
@Janinho, thanks.
You really need to look into some psychological practice or treatment.
You have an obvious affixation to self entitlement and projection.
Its not my problem man its yours.
Best of luck to you trading then if thats what you do. I cant handle it. If you are a trader, ignore my posts.
I'm a longterm investor here, and I bought a mining farm too but....its my side thing, its personal finance for me, not my profession.
@Janinho, ya. good excuse for being a degen.....keep talking.....blaming others.....no logic or intelligence..... its all you can do
Janinho
⋅
@ezpi, at this point I think you are just trolling. CEO of my arse
ezpi
⋅
@Janinho, technically ya little twat, youre right - my actual title is Partner. we dont have C-titles in my firm. i was just using that because i have to try and use words degens like you might understand ofc...
we arent huge, like a sequoia or anything - but we do have over 2BN AUM.....and we started less than 10 years ago.....so not too bad, and i do frequently do deals with sequoia, battery, benchmark, a16z, rakuten, softbank, etc.....and so on.
i doubt you know what im talking about now though, r-tard.
troll? that is what you are when you ignore every logical, evidence-based argument - and instead just call names.
youre such a frikkin incompetent you use words like troll, while trolling, and dont even know youre a troll.......
what a degen..........
way to go there, suicidal much?
only weak hands are being shook out now, I guess youre one of them.
institutions are buying and holding from OTC so their volume doesnt even hit the books.
looking at your previous charts though its pretty clear that you change your stance every week.
youre just guessing back and forth and are one of the easily manipulated....
fools sell their crypto in bull markets.
only fools.
we havent even seen the bottom for next bear cycle yet.
those of us who know how this market works have been expecting a retouch to weekly 10 or 20MA since february.
currently that means we need to retouch 45k area and this would be 100% expected and healthy for continuing the bull cycle we are in.
but i digress, if you want to skip out now in the mid accumulation phase of a supercycle bull market, by all means, im buying OTC so the lower the price goes the better deals I get.