Bitcoin: What happened to the retrace?

What was supposed to be a "small retrace" transformed into a full blown bearish continuation, we will have to rethink everything by revisiting all charts on all timeframes.

We have to wait for two developments before going deep into the charts: 1) The monthly close and 2) the weekly close; today and tomorrow respectively.

While we wait let's focus on the chart as it is today.

What is Bitcoin saying on the daily timeframe?

Good news first.

The current low sits at $76,000. The lowest point before today happened April 2025 at $74,508. This is a long-term higher low or double-bottom.

Where is the good news?

The previous low, 21-November 2025, happened around $80,500. $76,000 is not a major support level compared to $80,500, which means, we are looking at a stop-loss hunt event. The current move supports a strong wave of growth next. That is, as early as it still is on the current move, the relief rally, an up-wave next, has not been cancelled. But, we need more information from the monthly and weekly close.

Today Bitcoin will close January as the fourth consecutive red month. The monthly timeframe chart looks awful.

There was a scenario where Bitcoin moves straight down completing the bearish period in one sustained move. While we are at four months red, there isn't enough evidence to support this scenario. Trading volume continues to be lower compared to late 2025 and everything is oversold, deeply oversold. A reversal is most likely coming from the daily chart.

Market conditions are now very, very similar to February-April 2025. A major correction leading to a lower low. The second low is not a major level but rather a stop-loss hunt event. Once support is found, Bitcoin reverses. All oscillators extreme oversold. Market sentiment wavering around extreme fear... Lower is possible before a reversal happens.

More information will come from the monthly and weekly timeframe.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.