In my previous BTC analysis I tried to predict the short term movement of BTC. At first, I expected yesterday's rapid drop to have more impact, potentially breaking through the pennant's support line. I didn't expect the NFP data to cause such a strong bullish reversal (+6%), which was in the end short-lived.
Take a look at my previous BTC analysis for reference. I moved some trend lines for better visibility.
As it appears now we're facing a bearish break out of BTC. Yesterday's price action has continued after a small recovery from the NFP data. I've marked the red Reversal Zone as the main point of interest for today. Since the lower trend line of the pennant can be redrawn slightly, I've marked the 36k-35k area as an area of potential reversal of the current bearish trend.
In case a reversal were to happen I'd expect major resistance around 37.5k-38k, since it's both the area of the last local high and the resistance of the major pennant.
If today's candle closes below 35k I'm expecting a further drop of value towards the 31k-30k area, marked as the entry zone. Be aware that the 33.5k support might cause a minor reversal of trend or consolidation. As mentioned before, a pennant pattern during a strong trend is more often than not a continuation pattern, meaning we will continue the downward trend after the pattern has been completed.
The green area would be my ideal entry zone for both BTC and alts, as I'm expecting a strong reversal to take place there.
If there is enough power from the market makers to push the price to 30k-ish levels, it would be smart for them to go beyond and try 27-28k, as that would propel a massive sellout and stop loss what could eventually push the price into sub 20k area. A massive opportunity for them to reload for new ath.
FieryTrading
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@gwops3201, I also see a strong wick reaching below 30k to shake out all the sub-30k SL's, would be surprised if we get a daily close below it.
SwayzePunkz
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@FieryTrading I see your view on this. I consider this long downward wick as the "price to beat" if this bubble pop is going to continue. the bottom of that wick reaches 28k range, I believe this to be the first support to beat for the Bears to run. If we tap 28 and bounce back fast, we know we're in for a Bull market. if it breaks 28, she's going to drop, retest 28k, if that gets denied we hit 20-18k range. Before we're back to "pre-bubble" trend. I've been covering this Bubble Theory on my page. I'll be making further analysis over the coming days.
SignalProvider
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I always appreaciate your intput on BTCUSDT
amazing!
SwayzePunkz
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@SignalProvider it is certainly a beautiful drawing, my analysis is similar for BTC. I watch BTCUSD closely as this trading pair influences the entire crypto market. if you don't know how bit coin is doing, you should be trading altcoins.
@cryptopunk48, i agree with you, too . May I meet you?
SwayzePunkz
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agreed. I know I'm only shorting all coins for the next few days, as a day trader, I can't be playing both sides when we're this close to massive shift on the 1-3D charts.