Now at first this chart will look messy and random but the more you look at it the picture should become more clear. We have now seen 10 straight days of solid green and surely BTC is headed to New All-Time Highs right? We see a higher high and surely broken the downtrend right? Well, let's stop and take all previous price action since May 19th and apply it to potential future price action.
As you can see in the market conditions we are currently in, after each rally there has been a strong sell-off right after. 4 out of the last 5 sell-offs have followed a very similar trajectory, and basing the analysis on this fact we can determine there is an 80% chance it will follow similar trajectory once more if it does indeed start a sell-off at 45k. Using this data we can give a rough prediction for the trajectory of the potential sell-off.
Now while it can be easy to get caught up in this pump because on the surface it does seem strong but that's the whole purpose of a bull trap. They are supposed to fool you the "dumb money" while the "smart money" sets you up and baits you all the way to the top when the hook will be set.
The only real reason anyone believes this pump is headed to new ATH's is purely based on hope. Yes, you can analyze and find certain characteristics to support your thesis. This can be done for both sides, including this analysis. This analysis is purely based on the market conditions we have seen since May 19th and nothing more. No hope, no bias, just an assumption market conditions are the same and haven't changed. If that is the case then this analysis should hold its value. If it doesn't, conditions have changed.
While doing this analysis I noticed something interesting. It looks like this pump may have formed the final downtrend channel that will take BTC to its bottom. This is waiting for validation but it is something to watch nonetheless. I will have a follow-up post about it later on.
Thank you for making it this far into the analysis, I appreciate it! I hope you found it interesting in any way, comments are more than welcome;
Remember this is not advice and you should always do your own research.
As you can see in the market conditions we are currently in, after each rally there has been a strong sell-off right after. 4 out of the last 5 sell-offs have followed a very similar trajectory, and basing the analysis on this fact we can determine there is an 80% chance it will follow similar trajectory once more if it does indeed start a sell-off at 45k. Using this data we can give a rough prediction for the trajectory of the potential sell-off.
Now while it can be easy to get caught up in this pump because on the surface it does seem strong but that's the whole purpose of a bull trap. They are supposed to fool you the "dumb money" while the "smart money" sets you up and baits you all the way to the top when the hook will be set.
The only real reason anyone believes this pump is headed to new ATH's is purely based on hope. Yes, you can analyze and find certain characteristics to support your thesis. This can be done for both sides, including this analysis. This analysis is purely based on the market conditions we have seen since May 19th and nothing more. No hope, no bias, just an assumption market conditions are the same and haven't changed. If that is the case then this analysis should hold its value. If it doesn't, conditions have changed.
While doing this analysis I noticed something interesting. It looks like this pump may have formed the final downtrend channel that will take BTC to its bottom. This is waiting for validation but it is something to watch nonetheless. I will have a follow-up post about it later on.
Thank you for making it this far into the analysis, I appreciate it! I hope you found it interesting in any way, comments are more than welcome;
Remember this is not advice and you should always do your own research.
Comment:
It looks like BTC just didn't have enough to make that one last leg up to test 45k. This weakens the bearish perspective just a bit since I was expecting an irrational rise and dump. If it corrects from here to test the 4hr 200MA as support and is successful it will very likely shoot to 45k where the downtrend test will take place. This is a very important milestone to focus on. Until then we watch and wait.
Also on the shorter time frame, we see BTC has broken out of a bull flag to the upside that should send it up one last leg.