We have successfully tested the upper resistance of our trading range with a tiny upthrust and turned down towards the 35k support, following 32k and 30k.
Regarding p&f chart, i've explained in my previous analysis that we have 13 columns so far in the accumulation structure. This counts to a 39K potential, but we need at least 26k more to reach our beloved 100k, so We need at least 9 more reversal columns within the trading range for a potential of +66k markup taking us from 35k to over 100k.
But...
If we fail to break above trading range, we might see further downside and we souldn't rule this possibility out. That would mean the structure we are looking at right now is not accumulation but a redistribution, meaning continuation of the down trend. Remember in my last update, Bruce Frase analysis showed we could end up at 4-5k!
So how do we tell if we are in accumulation or re-destribution?
Let's watch another great workshop from Bruce Fraser on re-distribution structures. You will see it's not uncommon or impossible to find ourselves in this situation and it is my biggest concern right now.
I have drawn a red downtrend line on my imaginary accumulation structure starting on phase B all the way to phase D. This is a bearish descending triangle. If this plays out we can confirm the accumulation by observing this bearish triangle (which does not exist yet) and price should break this triangle in order to confirm and start new uptrend. If it fails to do so, we may find ourselves at $4-5k lows! This is the difference between accumulation and re-distribution.
Therefore, since we cannot confirm the bullish acccumulation case just yet, we should be patient and wait until such a confirmation happens.
The rest will be history.
Trade safe!
Comment
⋅
And btw, i've updated the upthrust point and moved the structure 9 days earlier.
Comment
⋅
Hi everyone,
I won't update the chart because it's moving like a clockwork, however i want to stress more on the possibility of redistribution as i found some footsteps of the composite operator and the checklist before going long.
I was planning to open long positions with a small portion of my portfolio but after noticing the following warning, i changed my mind and i'll pass this.
Remember, redistribution it's sudden and unexpected!
Here's The Wyckoff Buying Test for Accumulation:
- Downside price objective accomplished – P&F chart This is almost done. 31-26k is the price objective.
- Preliminary support, selling climax, secondary test - Bar and P&F charts These events occured in the right sequence
- Activity bullish (volume increases on rallies and diminishes during reactions) – Bar chart
WARNING HERE!!! Activity is NOT bullish as the volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions!!! THE EXACT OPPOSITE IS HAPPENING!!!
The following items have not been observed yet and if we are in redistribution THEY MAY NEVER BE OBSERVED!!!
- Downward stride broken (that is, supply line or downtrend line penetrated) - Bar or P&F chart - Higher lows - Bar or P&F chart - Higher highs - Bar or P&F chart - Stock stronger than the market (that is, stock more responsive on rallies and more resistant to reactions than the market index) - Bar chart - Base forming (horizontal price line) – Bar or P&F chart - Estimated upside profit potential is at least three times the loss if the initial stop-loss were hit – P&F and bar charts
i recommend you to check out hash rate related thing sorry i don't explain so much
BitcoinMillio18
⋅
@reza_1515, yeahi i'm following this. It's definitely a concern for many, but the truth is that China made a big mistake and these miners will re-start operating from US once they move their operations. It's just the current FUD needed to take price down.
UnknownUnicorn10828932
⋅
@BitcoinMillio18 whatever it is, china didn't make a mistake china has a big population and big ambitious yearly economical growth targets, they don't leave the field they defeated corona even if it was given to the world by them xch has a big potential and doesn't consume electricity as btc does, so electricity for factories?! I'm not sure about the time but btc will not impact the market as it does right now volume on eth.d is wonderful so at least there is a probability for eth to be number one, man i don't know about other kind of analysis, just my opinion
UnknownUnicorn14679555
⋅
5K…? Miner is not even profitable at that level.
BitcoinMillio18
⋅
@ksqndx2pqq, the idea is, we could be going lower than 29K LOL:)
BrianM20
⋅
ya, we should be in distribution, I tend to agree with Mayfair; i know you follow him as well.... if we go lower than say 29 K we're in distribution in fact. ultimately we know we're going down to 29k.
@BitcoinMillio18, why are you still on accumulation chart though? i understand it's a composite man, where you could have accumulation inside a distribution. Also please, please watch Mayfair's last update on BTC, if you have not, and tell me what you think about it.. looking forward to that
@BrianM20, i did watch mayfair. He's going for continuation of the down trend, which is what i'm saying, BUT we may as well break the downtrend and go up confirming accumulation. I'm waiting for any confirmation of an up or downtrend as i described in this post. Until we leave leave the trading range, both options are on the table, so i wouldn't depend on a stop loss at this moment. You can always buy back later. But note that a spring action can go lower than 29K as a bear trap or a stop loss hunting. That's why i'm in already cash, because if i was long, these areas would be where my stop loss be. Turns out exiting at 40k was a good call :)
sorry i don't explain so much