Going to keep this one short, will try to write another analysis soon again.
Think, at some point, we will make another retest of the lows, was thinking that past days as well and this chart shows as well that its not far fetched to think that. The massacre was quite big past week, not likely to think the market will recover in just a few days. normally it takes more time before confidence comes back in again. Also, the people i talked about in Part 1, who just didn't want to take profits at the highs, at least acting as if it was the biggest challenge ever in their lives, are also scared and some even are completely out of it. I am quite sure, the market will pull them back in again, but assuming we will see 50k+ prices again coming months (i hope).
What i don't know, if it might still do a short squeeze or not. Think anything below 44/46, remains dangerous for bulls. Touching 46kish, think would be a victory for the bulls. So, the correction could maybe be over already, could get extended a bit. When looking at ETH, seems like a bearish wedge in the making and at the support right now. For ETH the challenge is around 3000 zone.
Think the 37kish zone is a support and the 34kish. Upside, think 50K zone is the key level.
Previous analysis:
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I did some updates yesterday, switching sides twice because short term picture kept changing. One moment it looked weak and was looking down, but the 37kish held and now close to the high again.
At the moment, its starting to look as if bulls want to try something. Now yesterday i said 40/40.5k is resistance, but later that day i moved it up towards 42k (40/40.5 does still have some value).
The bearish wedge of BTC and others seems to be failing because the retest is extending a bit too much now. So, if we break up i see 2 options.
1) a very weak breakout, find resistance around 42k and turn back down again eventually. 2) a strong breakout then going towards the big 44/46k resistance.
If option 2 happens, we need to see then how things go to determine if the low is set and we continue to rally. Not likely, but who knows with this crazy market :).
The thick green line is the key level on the downside i think for the short term. Very similar to the 54K i mentioned week or 2 ago before the real crash started.
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Bitcoin still inside this 37/41 range, going up and down and getting quite confusing, but small ranges always are so no real surprise there. Just that i didnt'expect the range to get this big in time.
As you can see, we have what looks like an H&S now, not my favourite, too big relatively, but the neckline is the level i mentioned earlier today, which is around 37.5ish now. The curved blue line, is what i think bulls need to break, which is around 40.0K now. A touch of either level, should mean that it will follow through in that direction.
I think a lot of people agree, they just don't agree on the extended bear market after point "C"
kaotic363
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This crash was far worse at about 54% peak to first trough compared to early 2018 which was 45%. So I would say the bears really put the brakes on the bull run at this point. The halving cycle has run its course until 2024...
Blakberi
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tulips die bro
bestfarbit74
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sideways indeed but has more chance to long side as you mentioned, lets see how it works
YOU ARE MIXING 6TH OF JULY HEAD WITH 17TH OF DECEMBER
j_bones
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It would be to easy to buy the dip now. When everyone was calling for 20k and 10k, market was at peak fear and 32k looked like just the beginning, IMO we won’t see BTC at 32k short to mid term. I expect a little correction maybe wick down to 35k BTC coming to 36.5k alts correcting 10-20% and BTC moving to the upside with no large correction till 49k. BTD. D rising at times as alts have seen 70-100% growth, profits will be moved into BTC/ETH, ETH gaining value vs BTC. Still convinced 65k is top when comparing to Wyckoff schematics. BTC around 49k will be interesting .
botje11
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@j_bones that is a very realistic outlook, could certainly happen. Think all depends if 32/4 will hold coming days or more