Maybe we have arrived at our final destination. The fib study; #1 - the fib of the entire bull move. #2- Fib of the last wave before the ATH was made. #3- Fib of the bear move from the ATH to the swing low. Fib #3 - Price has hit the 127% extension from the ATH and the 1st corrective wave. I have drawn this from the failed high where the capitulation of BTC began. We are also at support on a daily chart. I have redrawn a bear flag to contain the move in the event that price does stall here it will make sense in retrospect. I am waiting for a HIgher high and then a higher low from this point as it's worth a shot long. See the hourly forecast. I will watch on the hourly to take my trade. Trade at your own risk - these are just my ideas and plans.
Comment
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The forecast on the hourly chart was as expected. We have a Change of Trend on the 60 min chart - I will wait for a fib of the change of trend to take my trade.
I took the trade on the retracement at 6446. So far so good.
monkia
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Hi, Thanks for your analysis. I always enjoy utilising some of your FIB takes on things and use them in my short term analysis. I've done some interesting long term trend analysis on ETHUSD and ETHBTC and think would could be gearing up for a strong 90 day bull run. It would be good to get your thoughts.
etop84
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Bravo!!!
monkia
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Hi what do you mean a fib of the change of trend?
gillianpatrice
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@monkia, Hi the FIB is the swing that forms proving that there has been a change of trend or COT on the smaller time frames. ie: the doji on the daily was formed when traders bought/took profits at the 127% extension of the bear correction. We watch that area for a 1-2-3 pattern or when the bearish move becomes bullish - price action show us this - a HIgher low & a Higher high. This confirms my plan to take the trade whether it works or not. I draw a fib from the swing low to the swing high on the 4hr or 60min then wait for a retracement and trade it long -placing my stop 1 point under the swing low.T
monkia
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@gillianpatrice, thanks for the feedback. I get the above, apart from one point on the FIB swing.
"I draw a fib from the swing low to the swing high on the 4hr or 60min then wait for a retracement and trade it long -placing my stop 1 point under the swing low."
I understand what you mean by the swing low (6012) and the swing high (6962) on the 1hr chart and then waiting for the retracement (6418). I also understand the trading strategy with the stop. However, how does the FIB line you draw in this help and influence you?
gillianpatrice
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@monkia, I look for an overlapping fib with orderflow to take the trade could be 0.382 or 50% or hopefully a 0.618 level to take the trade. I guess when you trading from such a good area initially and watching your trade come to fruition its a little bit of guess work here.