Not investment advice, just my ideas and opinions being shared for educational purposes.
Note: Longer time frames have been much more accurate and easy with regards to price prediction than shorter time frames.
Death Cross:
The 50 MA crossed under the 200MA in the end of October of 2019 which put in a new low of approximately $8000, but that event was followed by a giant green candle to the upside above $10,100. This was so obvious that it was price manipulation by whales and FOMO from retail investors as whales took advantage of the China news regarding their president Xi Jinping voicing the nation's support and adoption for blockchain and cryptocurrencies. A lot of hopefuls had thought this was the beginning of the bull cycle which was just simply hilarious as we continued to put in lower lows just days before the event. Better traders had sold bags at this move and bought in cheaper, which funny enough BTC had a new low less than a month later.
The last time a death cross occurred as you can see above was close to April of 2018 which resulted in a bear market of 8.5 months following, and a total of 13 months until the next golden cross.
Moving Averages:
The moving averages have simply been responsible for some of the biggest price movements in BTC history, period. Following the previous death cross of 2018 the price of BTC has gotten rejected at the 200MA not once but a few times before finally dumping for a whopping 50% further to the downside.
Psychology:
I think this information is key because if you've been trading BTC for a while now you will know that BTC tends to pick up steam and go mega-bullish when most investors have "lost hope" and/or stopped talking about the asset. Now remember, BTC is an asset that isn't correlated to any other. BTC dgaf and at the end of the day it is a young asset that is still in the process of being adapted by the masses, making it a volatile one that is 100% manipulated by bigger whales in the market. These whales do not have your best interest in mind and only care about coming out on the winning end of swings and accumulating as much of your baby bitcoins as possible so that they can sell back to you at the tops. These are facts and they're not always pretty.
Risk Management:
What are potential risks of taking a position here? Obviously losing a whole lot of money. In the past as you can see labeled in the chart above whenever BTC has gotten rejected off the 2000MA it has resulted in huge swings to the downside and continuation of the bear trend for months, but following a golden cross had a massive bull run of 180%, but over two months. The risk here is too great to take a position right here, better to wait for futher confirmations. WE ARE STILL TRADING UNDER A DEATH CROSS AND MACRO BEAR TREND.
Potential Confirmations:
Golden Cross
Daily candle close above the 200MA
Retracement Occurs in the 7-8k regions following a healthy RSI continuing to trend upwards to new highs, resulting in a real breakout above the 200MA
Weekly MACD flipping green following breakout and close above 200MA on the daily
Bottom Line:
These are obviously just my ideas and opinions. We could break through the 200MA and I would obviously change my strategy depending on where our retracement occurs and go from there. On the flip side we are facing rejection at the moment at the 200MA and I will look for BTC to drop in price but I will not be anticipating a new low in the immediate short-term at least. We could simply have what would be a healthy retracement to this current rally and again retest the 200MA. Time and various TA will only tell then. Due to the risks stated above I will preserve my capital for the time being and await further confirmation in the upcoming week or so to increase my probability of coming out on the right side of the next swing. You already know I like buying my bags on sale.
Let me know what you think, please like & share my idea. Safe trading folks :)
Note: Longer time frames have been much more accurate and easy with regards to price prediction than shorter time frames.
Death Cross:
The 50 MA crossed under the 200MA in the end of October of 2019 which put in a new low of approximately $8000, but that event was followed by a giant green candle to the upside above $10,100. This was so obvious that it was price manipulation by whales and FOMO from retail investors as whales took advantage of the China news regarding their president Xi Jinping voicing the nation's support and adoption for blockchain and cryptocurrencies. A lot of hopefuls had thought this was the beginning of the bull cycle which was just simply hilarious as we continued to put in lower lows just days before the event. Better traders had sold bags at this move and bought in cheaper, which funny enough BTC had a new low less than a month later.
The last time a death cross occurred as you can see above was close to April of 2018 which resulted in a bear market of 8.5 months following, and a total of 13 months until the next golden cross.
Moving Averages:
The moving averages have simply been responsible for some of the biggest price movements in BTC history, period. Following the previous death cross of 2018 the price of BTC has gotten rejected at the 200MA not once but a few times before finally dumping for a whopping 50% further to the downside.
Psychology:
I think this information is key because if you've been trading BTC for a while now you will know that BTC tends to pick up steam and go mega-bullish when most investors have "lost hope" and/or stopped talking about the asset. Now remember, BTC is an asset that isn't correlated to any other. BTC dgaf and at the end of the day it is a young asset that is still in the process of being adapted by the masses, making it a volatile one that is 100% manipulated by bigger whales in the market. These whales do not have your best interest in mind and only care about coming out on the winning end of swings and accumulating as much of your baby bitcoins as possible so that they can sell back to you at the tops. These are facts and they're not always pretty.
Risk Management:
What are potential risks of taking a position here? Obviously losing a whole lot of money. In the past as you can see labeled in the chart above whenever BTC has gotten rejected off the 2000MA it has resulted in huge swings to the downside and continuation of the bear trend for months, but following a golden cross had a massive bull run of 180%, but over two months. The risk here is too great to take a position right here, better to wait for futher confirmations. WE ARE STILL TRADING UNDER A DEATH CROSS AND MACRO BEAR TREND.
Potential Confirmations:
Golden Cross
Daily candle close above the 200MA
Retracement Occurs in the 7-8k regions following a healthy RSI continuing to trend upwards to new highs, resulting in a real breakout above the 200MA
Weekly MACD flipping green following breakout and close above 200MA on the daily
Bottom Line:
These are obviously just my ideas and opinions. We could break through the 200MA and I would obviously change my strategy depending on where our retracement occurs and go from there. On the flip side we are facing rejection at the moment at the 200MA and I will look for BTC to drop in price but I will not be anticipating a new low in the immediate short-term at least. We could simply have what would be a healthy retracement to this current rally and again retest the 200MA. Time and various TA will only tell then. Due to the risks stated above I will preserve my capital for the time being and await further confirmation in the upcoming week or so to increase my probability of coming out on the right side of the next swing. You already know I like buying my bags on sale.
Let me know what you think, please like & share my idea. Safe trading folks :)