Powell’s Speech & Bitcoin’s Decline: Is More Downside Ahead?

Mar 7

Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak, and traders should brace for potential market volatility! Given the recent economic data, his tone is likely to be balanced but leaning hawkish.

Why a More Hawkish Powell?

1-Strong Job Market:

Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (Still low)

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): 151K (Decent, but lower than before)

Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3% (Steady wage growth)

This suggests that the labor market remains resilient, which might discourage the Fed from cutting rates too soon.

2- Inflation Still a Concern:

Wage growth and inflationary pressures persist, which means Powell may emphasize keeping rates steady longer to combat inflation.

3- Markets Are Too Optimistic on Rate Cuts:

Investors are heavily betting on rate cuts in 2024, but Powell may push back against these expectations to prevent excessive risk-taking.

Powell will likely maintain a cautious yet hawkish stance to manage expectations. Big price swings are expected across forex, crypto, and commodities—so stay alert! (Of course, this is just a personal analysis).

In addition to Donald Trump, Signs Executive Order to Create Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Of course, today, we didn't see any strange movement in Bitcoin, and probably, the proverb "buy the rumor, sell the news" was fulfilled.
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Now let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart on the 1-hour time frame and also take help from technical analysis tools.

Bitcoin(BTCUSDT) is in a Heavy Resistance zone($93,300_$89,250) and has started to decline from Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ).

From a Classic Technical Analysis, Bitcoin appears to move in a Symmetrical Triangle.

According to Elliott Wave theory, Bitcoin has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY), and we should wait for the next bearish wave.

I expect Bitcoin to attack 200_SMA(Daily) again after breaking the lower line of the Symmetrical Triangle.

Note: Bitcoin is likely to pump more if the symmetrical triangle's upper line breaks.

Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.

Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.

Be sure to follow the updated ideas.

Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).

Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.

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Mar 9

Trade active

Trade was activated after breaking the lower line of triangle.

Mar 10

Trade closed: target reached

Full Target Done