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FX_Professor
Apr 28, 2023 12:03 PM

BITCOIN- Levels and Scenarios Today πŸ†—πŸ˜½ #OKXIDEASΒ Long

Bitcoin/TetherOKX

Description

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Hi everyone,

time to take a deeper look at the levels that are in play at thisvery moment.

First we must acknowledge the situation and i would highly propose you take a look at the 'Bigger picture':

(Don't forget to like and comment, i appreciate that)


Given that the price lies over crucial main key support level (mid channel at an ascending level roughly around 26800) means that we have support to base Long positions on.

The Bad scenario:
If that level is lost there is a second layer of support at 26500 but under that I also will be looking for short positions. That would be the 'Bad scenario' with Chances being less than 25% of that happening.

The text book scenario:
Text book says resistance becomes support, price then checks is as support and price can then rebound.
In this case the 26800 level has not been clearly checked as support as the price initially got rejected there on the 14 March 2023 and finally breached higher on the 17th of the same month (yellow circle on the chart).
Ever since we had a mild touch on the 23rd (double yellow and green circles on the chart) but i can't consider that as a 'check of support' as the rebound was mild and without much steam.
This does not mean that the price can not rise because we do have valid support levels at 29200-28700.
I see around 23% chances of this happening as I remain bullish.
Let's go to the 'Main scenario':

The Main Scenario:
Also you may call it the good scenario for Bitcoin as the secondary structure is again calling for Long positions at the moment
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On the secondary structure we have the blue triangle which has been breached north checked once as support and the price is finding comfort and support at this very moment. That level is now the 29200 with 28711 being a third, mild but valid support.
Add the POC at 28k to the equation and we now have not one but Three valid support levels to build on.
Thus I estimate a 52% chance of going higher from here and before needing to go lower than 28,000 (27800 for the exchanges wick and that's my trade today/this week).

Other factors:
Nasdaq (and SP500) are doing well these days and this helps the cause and the analysis. Bitcoin is still co-related tothe markets and Earnings have been better than most expected. Given that the markets are '6 months ahead' as they say and that Feds have been quiet and reasonable without spreading Hawkish fears for massive rate hikes since the 'banks black swan', my analysis is optimistic since the info shows that we might be coming to an end of rate hikes(that usually leads to lower rates down the road).
A rate hike of 0,25% is expected in 5 days during the next FOMC Meeting according to CME whereas for the End of the Year 2023 the CME sees rate cuts as over 78% possible!

Other factors are offcourse the halving of Bitcoin next year and many more fundamental reasons that you should know already:


Professor is Bullish here.. What do you think?
Don't forget to like and comment. Thumbs up to #OKXIDEAS πŸ†—πŸ˜½(oK + x)

One Love,

the FXPROFESSOR

Comment

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Price has secondary support at 27800 and 27470
If those levels are lost we are looking for a rebound at 26776.

Keep you posted

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#okxideas update:
new week and it's important to keep in mind there might be turbulence in the markets given the potential default (debt ceiling decision or not). keep you posted!

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#OKXIDEAS Update:

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CPI: Inflation report about to give us a rebound?

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Major support:
Comments
carthagovintage
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Great Analysis Professor, I’ve been following you since 2020 and you helped me to grow my wealth, my confidence and my knowledge on the markets… I’m a big fan
AntoninusOne
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Nice insight. Thanks Prof!
P_S_trade
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Possible scenario, agree with you
kosdrampas
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good as always
mariodraksler
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Bullish above 32k than correction than again bullish, i think...great review prof
FX_Professor
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@mariodraksler, cheers brother
vlatkovidicek
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love your ideas and thoughts it text.
FX_Professor
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@vlatkovidicek, appreciate it
helpfulPear98930
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i'm more inclined to the textbook scenario, scare all the longs and then fly~~
FX_Professor
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@helpfulPear98930, yes but you know the markets... they like to 'leave people behind' so tbh i am more inclined towards the good scenario.. then again you know me: born an optimist, turned into a bitcoin lover (ahaha)
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