The Pain is over. Market macro bottomed. Today's reversal candle should confirm it, it needs to close above $29500, and so far, it looks like we will make it!
FROM A SHORT-TERM PERSPECTIVE
We are seeing a good recovery supported by whales. A healthy rebound came, and with s, we have made a great profit from it by buying SOL at the bottom
28.5k-29k was reclaimed fast. Majors like BNB performed well during that, which is a good sign.
However, BTC on a lower time frame looks overbought right now (that is why we took a full profit on our SOL position few hours ago). Multiple confluences point to this:
1. $30500 is the H4 supply
2. 100 EMA/H1 rejection
3. Bearish Divergence
4. 21 EMA/H4 breakout is not really playing out.
While we would like the LTF uptrend to continue, a retrace to ~29K is very much possible.
Breakout from here and 31.5k should be very difficult to break, so the retrace is actually needed to grab more liquidity before going higher.
If the bearish LTF outlook plays out, we do not want 29k to be lost at any cost.
FROM A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE
Around 24k is our new macro bottom support zone which was already tested in USD, not USDT, as it was de-pegged at that time. After today's daily close next confirmation that this is our macro bottom will be in 17 days after monthly candle close, which needs to close above 29K, and we should be safe at least from another dump. A ranging environment is possible. Grinding up is expected.
Every BTC bottom occurs when the weekly candle touches the EMA 200 while the EMA 20 falls below the EMA 50. (this just happened). When the EMA 20 crosses back above the EMA 50, the Bottom is complete. To confirm the exit, look for the weekly EMA 20 bullish cross.
nero_burn
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@kevinbarnes88, Thanks for sharing your knowledge. This seems to be pretty accurate.