Preface: I'm still bullish on Bitcoin. Long-term trend still is dominantly bullish. With this analysis I merely want to discuss a potential downwards move after the halving.
With the BTC halving approaching fast (time flies!), I'm becoming concerned that the market will actually treat the halving as a sell-the-news-event, rather than a buying one. The simple reason is that we've been moving up in a straight line from 25k to 70k without any meaningful dip in between.
In recent history, major Bitcoin news events (Coinbase IPO, Bitcoin spot ETF launch) have been sell-the-news-events. So why would the Halving be bullish?
By now, everyone is aware of the supply shock that follows the halving. Smart money bought in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 in anticipation of this halving. Dumb money has waited until recently to buy in, leaving them open to a correction.
Furthermore, the weekly RSI remains extremely overbought with a value well above 80 points. It has to come down eventually one would think.
I remain long-term bullish. Even the short-term looks relatively good. However, we can't underestimate the markets ability to catch us off guard. Be wary over the next two weeks.
In case of a correction, I'm looking at the yellow area for a potential re-entry.
The real question is, why would the halving be bearish? It will be a non-event, like always. The idea that a correction occurs before or after is statistical nonsense. For weeks and months people have been preaching about a pre-halving crash, correction, dump, etc. Now that it still hasn’t happened, the people come out of the woods who claims a post-halving crash. Equal nonsense. Corrections do not occur from events or news, save for black swans. They occur because a first, third, or fifth wave is completed in the price action of a market. At no other time. It’s Nature’s Law, as Elliott put it. The fact that this can be proven, dispels the idea of a correlation to halvings, or other events. But halvings do have an effect on this market. They are the engine that has propelled this market to new heights consistently over 15 years, just as Satoshi conceived and programmed it. This is always factored into the price, even during the cool-off periods between halvings, the major corrections.
vseasalt
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@unbeldi good take. yes. it is possible that it could be a sideways/accumulation period. however, the logic follows that entities who bought earlier will take profits after a major news event. this can be tracked on-chain, giving us further insight into possible trends
unbeldi
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@vseasalt, well, some people take profits at various stages, according to their taste and greed. Others, such as Microstrategies buy buy and buy more during weak market conditions and just hold. Looking at the long term chart even on the daily, and not at all knowing just when these halvings occurred, there is no way anyone can tell us from the chart the timing of them. Not a chance. We can’t even tell from the location of the major peaks, as some cycles have two major peaks in them.
Bitcoin is in a bull pennant right now. Headed to 83K by end of the month IMO.
aamirlang
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Agreed
basictradingtv
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But so far we have to say price action is still pretty bullish🙌🙌
Ash002
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Good observation. Historically BTC corrects in April and May. We have had over 6 month of bull run, the market might go up after having but feel resistance from the same top level 68-69 and correct again.
this is what happened in 2021.
It will rise again and maybe touch 80k but not right now, first it will cool off with a major correction.
ParabolicP
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You’re all over the place
vseasalt
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the beauty of BTC and markets are that they can do anything, but I tend to agree w this analysis w/ maybe a slightly higher buy target. ideally a halving pump may bring a small alt pump as well, but probably not 😔. we shall see.