Looking at the bitcoin's volume profile on Binance, we can see the biggest weekly red/bear volume bar ever printed early November.
Chart | BTCUSDT Weekly
This volume came in as bitcoin broke below support and hit a multi-year low.
Let's move to bitcoin's (BTCUSD) monthly timeframe
In September 2022 bitcoin printed its highest bearish volume month ever but remained trading above Fib. support.
In November we have another strong bearish month but this time the 0.786 Fib. retracement support level was broken, a very important level. The monthly candle closed below it.
Now Bitcoin is trading below this level and aiming lower, one final drop, just as we saw with the SPX, DJI and NDX (See "Related Ideas" below).
We have mainly two scenarios, we expect the bottom to be in/confirmed before the traditional financial markets and also before April 2023.
Scenario #1 (red arrow): Straight down. No relief rally. The worst possible scenario and depression/job application washing cars for us.
Scenario #2 (green arrow): Price bounce followed by a very strong flash crash that sets the bottom and the slow paced recovery starts to take place followed by sustained long-term growth.
Read the articles below for a broader market perspective:
💾 S&P 500 Index (Bring In The Bad News, We Are Ready)
💾 Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Analysis (Lower High = Short)
💾 Nasdaq 100 Index | Strong Crash Ahead (Prepare!)
💾 Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) | Goes GREEN/Bullish!
I started to think that it is highly big amount of market capitalization considering that the most of the coins are not moving. It might be interpreted in two ways;
first one is "people are not putting their coins into the game and the markets are illiquid because of the hidden supply, and the price must go down further to convince them to sell"
the second one is "300billion dollar is still so much money compared to the other centralized works and companies in the world; and hangin around 300 billions of dollars just doesn't make sense for something which is handling whole missions itself without any bureaucratic plan and agenda"
I can't find any other reasonable solutions or explanations i see logical.
maybe the crypto coins are seriously over bought but they are being traded mostly anonymously according to the retailer customers and we can't reach a concrete-final strategy about where and how to buy them.
Btw testing the price of gold with bitcoin would be pretty interesting to test the understanding of scarcity. Which one is more scarce? Gold or Bitcoin? According to what metrics? -"man, just look at the price and see which one is more scarce" would be better solution.
Can bitcoin test 2k with a wick and a very big fire sell? Don't know but might happen and encourage the old unmoved bag owners to sell.
So much questions and the answers relying on probabilities...
AlanSantana
⋅
@haysicayim, Thanks a lot for sharing all of this.
Bitcoin is more scarce. More Gold is being dug out everywhere, non-stop, that's for certain.
The lowest we would say bitcoin can go is around $9,000. We are aiming around $11,300 based on past history.
$2,000 is absolutely not possible based on how Bitcoin has been behaving since its creation.
Mikanoshi
⋅
@AlanSantana, based on how Bitcoin was behaving since creation, drawdowns from the top become smaller with every cycle, 92% - 84% - 82%. Next one is 80% at most and it's 13800. Even that is too low because all previous drawdowns were measured from blow off tops, but we had none in this cycle. So anything below 14k is absolutely not possible unless stock market goes into a deep recession right now and Bitcoin goes with it (even though it was created specifically to protect from situations like this).
AlanSantana
⋅
@Mikanoshi, But you say absolutely not possible and then give a potential reason as to why it can be possible.
The stock market is going into a deep recession so...
I like your theory about each drawdown being smaller. I also like the $13,800 target.
Thanks for sharing.
Mikanoshi
⋅
@AlanSantana, I was just mimicking your post :) Why 2k is not possible if it's Bitcoin's first real bear market? It can go wherever.
AlanSantana
⋅
@Mikanoshi, True. We need to be open to all possibilities.
It is not highly probable but anything can happen that's for sure.
Maybe Nuclear war will send it to $1,000
haysicayim
⋅
@Mikanoshi, for 4 halvings lets add 4 zeros to the 1 and go to the 10k again :)