I sold My Car And I'm NOT Buying Bitcoin!

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
My wife just got a new job and we now have a company car! There's no point in keeping our car, because it's a deprecating asset. However, as much as i want to buy more Bitcoin with this cash, i'm just not buying now and here's why;

If you look at the downward channel , you'll see that the last time price went above, ended up with a mark down. It's way too risky to buy here right now. This is a bull trap at it's best.

So, let's review my bullish case;

1- Break the triangle (and make sure it's not a bull trap)
2- Break $37k
3- Break $41k

Even if the triangle looks like being violated, it just means it's in the overbought territory. Whenever i bought the overbought condition, i lost. Instead, i'll assume this violation is a bull trap and wait for the next oversold condition which is below 22k! That's 35% down from current price and once it reaches there with a climactic action, it won't stop until everyone believes Bitcoin is dead.

Why have a nightmare?

So, here's the scenario i'm buying;

Given we are in redistribution, not accumulation;

1- This current moment is last point of supply (LPSY)
2- Markdown will follow down to December 2020 lows at $17.500
3- Start sideways accumulation verified with net buying activity on the volume profile
4- The spring event occurs and verifies with change of character, stong volume
5- I buy (Else, i wait for another drop)
6- Price rallies to 80k in November
7- Evaluate sideways action whether it's distribution or re-accumulation.
8- Sell with 4x profit if it's redistribution, else ride until 100k and above!

Why 80k? Read my recent analysis:

Ofcourse it's too early to give price target, we will need to calculate the horizontal count during the real accumulation and adjust our estimation, but so far this is what i can say.

Until then friends, i'm sitting on cash enjoying stable daily interest.

DON'T FOMO, you can always buy later.
Comment: Looks like 16k is playing out
Comment: Buying this month! Point of No Return

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