The solution to this analysis is to find the most probable reversal point for this corrective move, that is currently happening on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin failed to make a parabolic move. If we compare the start of the bull market in 2018, it was different because Bitcoin parabolically rose. But this time is different!
We must now concentrate on catching the bottom of this correction so that we can ride wave 3. Waves 3 are usually the most impulsive and most parabolic, so you really want to be in the market.
To catch the bottom of this corrective move, we need to use the most effective tools, such as FIB, GAPS, and Elliott Waves. Elliott Wave works best with crypto and stocks and worst with forex, so you want to use different tools for each environment.
On the chart, you can see 4 possible reversal points. Which one do you think is the most probable? Let me know in the comment section; I want to see your opinion! In my opinion, the 0.618 FIB seems the most logical level for a trend reversal.
But POC and the start of the gap at 16859 are also pretty juicy. But it's too low; it's hard to believe that the market will go back to these levels. On the other side, everything is possible.
Also, we have a CME gap on BTC1! futures, which is between 19995 and 20460. The chances of a pullback in this area are very high!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
The true issue and threat is the unfilled GAP between 16.8K and 20.4K. Usually, all gaps tend to be filled. You can do a backtest, and you will see that this is pretty much true. We don't need to close the gap completely, but partially, yes. That's why it's almost a guarantee that Bitcoin is going to touch 20500 sooner or later. It can be this month, next month, or even later next year, in 2024. I hope it's going to happen sooner rather than later!
I am not shorting anything, just to be clear. I rather prefer short-term longs with low RR rather than shorting. I don't want to play against the main trend, which is bullish! I believe we will hit a new all time high on Bitcoin this year or next year.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
perfect u got all the possibility laid out....no clear direction
Tolberti
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@x333-, I want to see more price action to determine the end of wave 2. We are limited by the number of tools we can use. As the price develops (new trendlines, Elliott waves, and Fibonacci extensions), we can catch the bottom.