Price contracting on the 4hr. Buy volume decreasing however denoting further downside to come. Last 4hr also bearish engulfing. Hoping for a bounce though to 4-hr resistance to open a new short. I was in a short last night, took profits early on an order at 57k today. Finally won one again. Happy with the modest gains. 4hr 21 ema currently at 56.6 could be the next possible bounce point. I've also highlighted two daily candle close areas. It is likely they may get retested for support before further upside.
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I think it's quite possible we get an end-of-day rally above the red line and create another green daily candle, before falling back down to the lower targets and bouncing higher from there. I try to think about the bigger candles and what they should look like once completed, given the trend and whether or not we have hit the most important targets on the macro time frames.
Trade active
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Short opened at $58,066. Taking profits at 56k w a stop loss at $58,312. Possible will go for 55.315. Hourly fell pretty hard after open short target hit.
Nice setup at what point from here would there be a possible short to tp
ClearOpenDoor
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@aaronstevens566, The blue dotted lines are profit-taking zones If we go up to the purple line I'll try again to short. Otherwise I'll wait until we get a bit higher
Tonpanzee
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Thanks for sharing your daily playbook. Very interesting. I'm taking a scalp short near that purple line you've shown for sure
Purple line will be a good short scalping opportunity I think as well, but main open short target is five-nine-point-five
If btc goes up to fifty-eight-sixty-six from here I will open short it first down to bottom light blue line. If btc goes down to bottom light blue line first I will open long it to purple line.
Tonpanzee
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@ClearOpenDoor, Agreed. The only issue I have with that is that it seems so obvious as a target for traders. I've seen alot of bears who are looking at that fib and looking to short 59.5. Its hard to see a case where everyone jumps on the same short and all make 600% in a day. The crypto markets don't make it easy like that. The september 6 short was not an easy call that only few smart people (like yourself I saw you open) I read took on the day of. I'm thinking an extended 5th wave that takes us close to the all time high to pile in most of my shorts
ClearOpenDoor
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@Tonpanzee, You could be right! But, a lot of people shorted on the way up and kept getting burned too. IMHO it's a miracle they were able to drive it up this far. Chances are higher for a massive correction if 60k cannot be achieved. Also the beginning of 2020 created a very similar buy-up phase with no correction and topped at exactly 10.5k and a similar monthly neckline area. And many are waiting for 60k+ before shorting as well.
I have to try it there, if my stop loss gets taken I'll probably sit out and wait for a higher timeframe reversal candle like a daily and try again then.
Tonpanzee
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@ClearOpenDoor, Definitely. 59.5 is a good start to look into averaging into long term shorts. Thats how you do it. You called the last two major drops, so at the very least I won't be long there betting against you :P
ClearOpenDoor
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@Tonpanzee, This market is brutal. I never moved my stops or took profit, so i was spectacularly ahead.. until I lost it all back.
I want to hit a couple singles and ground-roll doubles just to book some wins. I keep looking for that grand slam home run and it's costing me.
Tonpanzee
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@ClearOpenDoor, Same exactly with me. Happened to me 3 times already where I am up a ridiculous amount and I miss my exit plan by like 40 bucks and take it back to break even (which I always set when I'm ahead). Yes its brutal. But the home run that you hit in theory makes it all back when you get it. I like the strategy of keeping losses small and wins HUGE, so I only need a 3/10 trade rate or so to be profitable
Tonight did not go well for me. Another 3 bad trades because of this tweet from the SEC that pumped bitcoin. Stop loss hit on the first, then tried shorting the monthly resistance at $58,740, no stop loss and even doubled my position at 59.5. Of course all the action happened while I was at work and had to do it all on my phone, which is never good.
On top of that somehow my stop loss got taken at $60,115 - even though it was WELL above the high that hit on the exchange.
I dont even know how unlucky I have to be for something like that to happen. At this point I don't even want to trade anymore!
If total market cap touches ath of 2.577 trillion or btc reaches around its ath zone, I'll open a last-ditch effort short. At this point I'll miss the whole bull run before I long bitcoin again, but oh well. I'll fight for what I think the market has to do or die trying.