Where is BTC price likely to go from here? I remain bullish and here is why. Firstly I'd like to cover the basic market structure. There is a lot of lines on this chart so I apologize, but I'll address each one and I hope you can see why I feel they are significant enough to remain.
1. BTC is in a long term uptrend - see thick green line.
2. We have just completed a top pattern followed by a retracement to the Fibonacci Golden Pocket (between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels). You can see how the price arches over at the top (purple curve), finally defining the top with a lower high in each case. Due to the volatility and leveraged trading in crypto we can also see both times price has actually wicked down below the Fib 0.618 level (pink circles), only to be snapped up by buyers lying in wait with their limit buy purchase orders.
3. Have a look now at how predictive the RSI and OBV indicators have been each time. I've placed a red vertical line at 17th April and 16th November so you can see that both of these indicators crossed down over the centre line on this day. This is most accurately represented by placing a trend line across the top of the indicators to remove noise (yellow).
4. The wick down in both cases has marked the lowest point for both the RSI and OBV after which price has moved weakly up and down mostly inside the Golden Pocket. Yes, it has rallied above a few times, but these rallies have not seen OBV move into positive territory (stayed red). Without significant positive volume price can not form a new uptrend, so in these cases price will always fall back to retest lower levels again. Best to wait for market volume to confirm direction.
5. Lastly, I marked the chart (indicators) with white rectangular boxes. Compare the previous consolidation pattern with the current one. OBV has started to climb in both cases. The RSI has crossed up over the previous downtrend line. The only thing we are still missing is for the OBV to go green, showing us that the general market is getting behind the new uptrend. Once this happens I'll be placing a green vertical line on the chart for the first time since 23 July :)
1. BTC is in a long term uptrend - see thick green line.
2. We have just completed a top pattern followed by a retracement to the Fibonacci Golden Pocket (between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels). You can see how the price arches over at the top (purple curve), finally defining the top with a lower high in each case. Due to the volatility and leveraged trading in crypto we can also see both times price has actually wicked down below the Fib 0.618 level (pink circles), only to be snapped up by buyers lying in wait with their limit buy purchase orders.
3. Have a look now at how predictive the RSI and OBV indicators have been each time. I've placed a red vertical line at 17th April and 16th November so you can see that both of these indicators crossed down over the centre line on this day. This is most accurately represented by placing a trend line across the top of the indicators to remove noise (yellow).
4. The wick down in both cases has marked the lowest point for both the RSI and OBV after which price has moved weakly up and down mostly inside the Golden Pocket. Yes, it has rallied above a few times, but these rallies have not seen OBV move into positive territory (stayed red). Without significant positive volume price can not form a new uptrend, so in these cases price will always fall back to retest lower levels again. Best to wait for market volume to confirm direction.
5. Lastly, I marked the chart (indicators) with white rectangular boxes. Compare the previous consolidation pattern with the current one. OBV has started to climb in both cases. The RSI has crossed up over the previous downtrend line. The only thing we are still missing is for the OBV to go green, showing us that the general market is getting behind the new uptrend. Once this happens I'll be placing a green vertical line on the chart for the first time since 23 July :)
