I need to point out exactly how bearish our situation is currently.... I have went back throughout the historical prices of BTC to see how Gartley's in a downtrend played out. Good news is that I hit pay dirt with the information that I'm about to share with you, so you can profit as well out of it. Bad news is that its NOT bullish one bit, like... Not at all...
The very first thing I'll do is show you how these harmonic patterns played out in bear markets (which we are in for absolute sure btw)... And found out the just prior to completing a 5-drive pattern, any time we are sandwiched between the 11 days MA and the 21 day EMA, it is an ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY bearish sign. period. So if you are long right now, please take a good look at screenshots of all of the prior harmonic patterns that played out similarly. Notice a trend?
I fully expect us to drop somewhere between the 0.236 and 0.382 fibs from here. From there, a long opportunity presents itself, and then right back to a short... A very profitable short.
These patterns have worked themselves out numerous times. Use them to your advantage. Don't get TOO greedy. But let history give you a chance to profit.
My plan:
Short to 8040, long back to 8300, then short to this puppy DOWN... WAAAAAY down. We're talking around 6800 down...
Congrats. I just made you some money comrades.
TRADE ON!
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Don't get scared with the recent pump. There were scenarios where we attempted to break out past the next 4hr MA on previous historical downtrends in a harmonic pattern. About every single one of them (even in bull markets) signified a downtrend at the end of the pattern.
More so when we are in a bear market...
Remember, do NOT over-leverage yourself because these impulses can liquidate your position quick, just like the latest impulse wave. They all come back down, and they all do a very recognizable pattern..
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Success! Rejected by the 21 and 11 MA’s. I do think we will drop to around 8k before there is more buying probably towards the 0.5 fib on chart.
With that said, I wouldn’t suggest longing this back to 0.5 because you never want to trade against the trend, especially a bearish one still forming.
I would wait for another short opportunity at the 0.5. You can be a bit more risky with the leverage there... Don’t go overboard.
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From the apx 8300 area, a good profit target for the short is somewhere in the neighborhood of 7400, which signifies the next major monthly pivot. That will be a better risk/reward ratio than a long back to the 0.5...
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I want to also give you guys the possibilities that exist here, because there DOES exist a bullish possibility. PSAR is indicating potential momentum up... NOW, this could just indicate the top of the trend line that is right around 8300.
HOWEVER if we break that top trend line, YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY GO LONG because it will be trying to complete the Shark pattern and we can see 8600 territory. EXPECT A RETRACE AFTER BREAKOUT UP. I would almost wait to short back down if we fail back down away from the top trend line.
I cannot guarantee what happens, I can only give you the possibilities. It's up to the buyers and sellers at that key time.
It would be great if you could tell us which indicators you're using besides MA 11/21, specially that one giving sell/signals so we can follow you properly, thanks!
@sfigus, hopefully you just made some good money from that short my friend.
I updated the idea just now to give you an idea of where to short next.
sfigus
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@zk8619, It was a great call but i only shorted from 8250, then chickened out and close it when i saw it was going up quickly at 8160 for only 2.3% or so with small 2x leverage, maybe should i raise to 3x to avoid too much risk?
Now i'm seeing that i shouldnt have closed it at all just for a small green candle...
Now waiting to see if it goes up a little again to short at 8300 or so as you recommend!
Thanks for taking care of us!
Zulu_Kilo
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@sfigus, I cannot guarantee we go back up to 8300. But there has been some bullish signs here indicating some buying. We are also bottomed out on Bollinger on both 1hr and 4hr which is supply zone, so it’s now trying to go up.
In my charts the 11 and 21 MAs are the yellow and orange lines.
Also the buy/sell indicator I use is called TUX EMA scalper. If you do use it, MAKE SURE the candle closes even if it is showing buy or sell because price can change quick and the indicator repaints until candle closes.
I only recommend using 5x for any position long or short.
Also, I would wait out the end of day close... Usually around the 23:00 UTC time (right before daily closes) there is a flurry of activity, usually buying... so if you want to be in a short, wait till after the daily closes.
sfigus
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@zk8619, Just tried added TUX EMA Scalper to my chart, looks great so far, yeah i never use more than 5x, normally 3x to be able to have an open position without sweating it for days...
I'm still trying to figure what time is daily candle close in my timezone (Gmt+2)
If its 23.59 Gmt then i'm already sleeping long ago, lol.
BTW, Looks like we're still going down right?
I shorted once again at 8180...
Thanks for everything!