Wyckoff PnF (Point and Figure) chart calculation (1 box reversal, 400/BOX) for the previous Distribution that completed on Dec 3rd, provides drop target of -12000. This is almost EXACTLY how low the price dropped out of that Distribution. I'd say that pretty much exhausts the Cause built up in the previous Distribution, so I am assuming that the drop is complete now.
The big question now is whether the TR we are seeing is Re-Distribution, or Accumulation?
To me, it's currently looking more like a Re-Distribution. Here's why: 1) Volume at Support is actually expanding as the TR matures
2) Upthrusts are happening on increasing volume, suggesting that the prices are rising into a lot of Supply.
3) Price spread on the upthrusts is getting more compressed the closer we get to the top of the rally, suggesting that the C.O. is dumping a lot of Supply into the uptrend, selling at the highest price they can.
4) Price spread and volume both increase on the declines, so we have very quick, aggressive drops as C.O is offloading.
5) The price action at Support suggests that we are not looking at absorption of Supply. If it was, we'd see very low volume rallies, which is what happens when more and more Supply gets absorbed. This is not the case here - the rallies are clearly requiring quite a bit of "sponsorship" based on the huge volume spikes.
Assuming we are looking at Re-Distribution, the current PnF target suggests that we have enough Cause already built up to drop by -7500, which takes us to 41.9k.
Does this make sense to all of you Wyckoffians out there?
last time you said it will go to 55k now its going to 41k lol
vace117
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@dranzel_karl_martinez, Still learning, man :). Just started looking at Wyckoff Method last week, so posting here mostly for feedback.
ElizabethMae
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@vace117, looks like a wyckoff accumulation to me ( we are in the Last Phase ).
vace117
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@dranzel_karl_martinez, Thank you for weighing in! It's very helpful to hear from more experienced traders as I try to learn this stuff.
I can already tell that being able to tell the difference between Distribution and Accumulation can be much more complicated than the tutorials would lead one to believe. The current TR seems to have the attributes of both, when I look at volume and price spread, so I am not too sure how to tell them apart in this case.