HeisenbergBTC

Bitcoin 1 week analysis 4/30/2020

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Well good morning Bulls and welcome to my daily analysis of Bullcoin.. I mean Bitcoin . Geez!!! WTF is going on with all these crazy pumps??? I can say why they were not always expected they were always welcome. Everyone loves a good green candle after all. But will the bulls keep pumping the charts? Can we eclipse the 10k mark??? Easier said than done I suppose. With all the green candles on the 4hr and daily over the last few days I have been getting a lot of messages asking if its a good time to buy. Well chasing green candles is a good way to get REKT. But if you stick to a plan you can minimize the risks involved if you do decide to take the dive and chase the pump.

The thing about a pump is it ends eventually and the ones that were the last to get in on said pump usually end up being the ones holding heavy bags after the prepared traders take their profit and get on with their lives. After all trading is simply a way to take money from the impatient and give it to the patient. So no shame if you do want to get into this pump but always set a stop loss immediately. Find your sweet spot. There is not a special formula to set a stop loss. Just set it where you feel comfortable. You can try to stick with a set 10% below spot price at the time or something but with the volatility Bitcoin displays that is definitely not fool proof. I dont recommend chasing green candles. Especially this deep into a pump. But if you must stick to the strategy above and you can minimize your losses.

The descending resistance I drew which started last year back when we were at 14k has been reliable at displaying the top of each pump including the one we are currently experiencing. We climbed past all that resistance on the way up from 3800 and now we have heaps of support below us and when you have all that support below you the bulls start getting happy. Fomo sometimes follows and you have what we see on the charts now. A big pump. Gotta love the "traders" that chase that pump. They are the cherry on top. But the descending resistance on the chart is still providing us a reliable resistance and it could spell the end of this current bull pump as we just recently tested this key resistance.

This pre halving pump was a bit unexpected by me. I was expecting the whales to want cheaper BTC pre halving and its still possible that a dip shows its face within the next couple of weeks. But we did dip to 3800 6 weeks ago and perhaps that was the pre-halving dip I was watching out for. I am still preparing myself for anything at this point. The economy is still not recovered and other markets are still in the refuse pile. Unemployment is at an all time high. All signs point to a bearish outlook. And in other markets that is exactly what we are seeing, but not Bitcoin . Is Bitcoin more resilient than say oil? I would say we dont have enough data to definitively prove this without a doubt. But we did see Bitcoin recover every bit of what was lost 6 weeks ago during the "dip heard round the world" When all the markets crashed pretty much. Bitcoin dropped from 8k down to 3800 in a 24 hour period. That is a huge dip. Over 50%. But we have since grabbed back all these losses and we did it in less than 2 months.

The weekly cloud is our next hurdle. We entered the cloud once we broke 8550 and we even jumped over the weekly 50 MA in the process. The bulls were really pumping things last night. Its bullish to get above the 50 MA on any time frame but the weekly is special as we have not been above the weekly 50 MA since late February. If we can escape the weekly cloud we will be above 9500. It can happen but it will take a lot of effort from an already worn out bull crowd. Nothing goes up forever. Although everytime I act a bit bearish Bitcoin seems to jump 1k so bring on the bearish sentiment lol. But that is the nature of the markets. What goes up must come down and Bitcoin is no different. With the hefty resistance above us (descending resistance in yellow along with the top of the weekly cloud which already rejected our attempt to hurdle it only hours before making this analysis)

I simply keep walking my stop loss up in the meantime. I ensure that I lock in that profit while also not shooting myself in the foot by exiting my position to soon and missing the rest of the pump. I hate it when that happens. But with the stop loss walking you can stay in the pump so long as you keep an eye on the charts and dont move your stop loss down. It just creates a bigger mess when you do finally decide to stop. You just lose more money. Make sure you set your stop loss at a reasonable spot where you feel comfortable. Stick with it folks. If it trips you are out. You will have another shot. Believe me. Learn from your mistakes and try try again.

The weekly closes in 4 days and we need to keep this weekly candle where it is or higher to keep the spirit alive. Easier said than done I know. But closing the weekly candle above the weekly 50 MA would be seen as bullish in traders eyes and that could spark more pump. Of course this is all speculation at this point. The weekly close will be the deciding factor on this pump I imagine and if we cant make it to Sunday above the weekly 50 MA at the very least we may see a retrace. I would prefer us to close above the weekly 50 MA and the weekly cloud but that may be a bit greedy.

This pump reminds me a lot of the incredible pumps Ive been a part of for the last 2+ years Ive been into Bitcoin . Bitcoin is exciting and if you can learn to be patient and minimize risks you can ride these waves and kill it with your profit. This pump could very well be done now that we have hit major resistance but I still am not counting BTC out. That would be ignorant. Instead I will prepare myself for anything and minimize the risk when and wherever possible. You should do the same folks. I will be watching those charts today. Cheers bulls. Lets see you break 10k once again... That would be an amazing rally back from 3800. But then again WTFDIK????

Comments

Loved the comment about the walking stop loss, indeed really nice way to stay in the market but still keep it rational. Why do you feel the close above the 50 MA is greedy? Isn't that a close above 8700? Doesn't seem too farfetched given the current price?

I have also been looking at BTC, and going for some reasonable trades, trying not to get FOMO with all these extremely high percentage gains:
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detailed update, thank you for sharing.
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