Hello everyone,
BTC 2H chart shows clear rejection at 0.382 Fib retracement ($90,421) after brief rally attempt. Price now back below it (~$89,987 area), maintaining the descending channel structure with lower highs intact.
Key Technicals:
📌 Fibonacci Retracement (Swing High ~$95.5k → Low $87.3k):
0.236 broken, 0.382 rejected multiple times → strong overhead resistance.
📌 Next barriers: 0.5 ($91,397), 0.618 ($92,372).
📌 Descending Channel: Upper trendline capping rallies, lower highs pattern holding.
📌 VRVP: Heavy selling supply stacked $90k–$96k (dominant pink/red bars) → exhaustion on up moves.
Bearish Confluences:
✅ Multiple rejections at Fib + channel resistance despite momentum attempts.
✅ Low-volume zone = increased volatility risk on downside.
✅ Overhead supply from VRVP confirms selling pressure dominant.
SHORT Setup (High-Probability Wait):
Entry: ~$92,310 (confirmed rejection at 0.618 Fib $92,372) – look for long upper wicks, declining volume on approach.
SL: $94,121 (above key resistance) – Risk ~1.962%.
TP Range: $84,065 (1.272 to 1.618 Fib extension confluence + psychological support zone).
Why Wait for Confirmation?
Patience for rejection at resistance → tighter stop, higher probability. No clear signal = no trade.Invalidation: Clean close above $94,121 + volume breakout → bullish flip, reassess higher.
Monitoring next 24–48h for rally to $92k rejection or direct breakdown below $89k. Technical structure holds priority.
DISCLAIMER
Educational analysis documenting my trading process. Not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile. Use proper risk management. Trade at your own risk!
BTC 2H chart shows clear rejection at 0.382 Fib retracement ($90,421) after brief rally attempt. Price now back below it (~$89,987 area), maintaining the descending channel structure with lower highs intact.
Key Technicals:
📌 Fibonacci Retracement (Swing High ~$95.5k → Low $87.3k):
0.236 broken, 0.382 rejected multiple times → strong overhead resistance.
📌 Next barriers: 0.5 ($91,397), 0.618 ($92,372).
📌 Descending Channel: Upper trendline capping rallies, lower highs pattern holding.
📌 VRVP: Heavy selling supply stacked $90k–$96k (dominant pink/red bars) → exhaustion on up moves.
Bearish Confluences:
✅ Multiple rejections at Fib + channel resistance despite momentum attempts.
✅ Low-volume zone = increased volatility risk on downside.
✅ Overhead supply from VRVP confirms selling pressure dominant.
SHORT Setup (High-Probability Wait):
Entry: ~$92,310 (confirmed rejection at 0.618 Fib $92,372) – look for long upper wicks, declining volume on approach.
SL: $94,121 (above key resistance) – Risk ~1.962%.
TP Range: $84,065 (1.272 to 1.618 Fib extension confluence + psychological support zone).
Why Wait for Confirmation?
Patience for rejection at resistance → tighter stop, higher probability. No clear signal = no trade.Invalidation: Clean close above $94,121 + volume breakout → bullish flip, reassess higher.
Monitoring next 24–48h for rally to $92k rejection or direct breakdown below $89k. Technical structure holds priority.
DISCLAIMER
Educational analysis documenting my trading process. Not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile. Use proper risk management. Trade at your own risk!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.