dalmazio
Long

Schrodinger’s Cat: Two Realities (Part II: Bull)

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
I'm including the same analysis here as for the sister post (Part 1: Bear). I've published them separately as overlaying bear and bull scenarios on the same chart can get kind of messy.

It seems there is a region of both charts that overlap in such a way that both the bear and bull view can be supported in this region simultaneously. But as soon as we exit this region of space-time, the two realities collapse into one. Which one? That’s the question.

From the bear perspective, the region of interest is the region just after completion of wave 1 of the C wave which we have just begun. This region is the wave 2 correction of wave 1. At the end of a typical wave 2 (fib. 0.5 to 0.618 retracement ) we would expect to then reverse downwards with wave 3 of the broader C wave.

If instead, we continue to move upward passed the start of wave 1 (from the bear perspective), then it’s looking more like a bull, and the bull chart takes over (at least for now). I say, “at least for now” because it’s still possible that we could be in a B wave, and the C wave has not yet begun. So Schrodinger’s Cat may still be hiding in another smaller box. This bear view will be tenable until the B wave passes too far beyond the X wave, perhaps $4360, which represents the fib. 1.382 extension of wave A. at which point, the cat exits the box and room (bull seems likely). For expanded flat ABC corrections, which this appears to be one, the usual B extension of wave A is 1.236, so we’ve been generous with 1.382. But let’s be safe, and say $4400 as the point of (virtually) no return.

From the bull perspective, the same region of interest occurs after completion of the wave (ii) correction of wave (i) of the broader wave 3. At the completion of wave (ii) we are at the same point, in a parallel universe, that we are for the bear view at the completion of wave 1 of the broader C wave.

At this point, bear and bull may proceed mano a mano for a short time in an upward movement. From the bear perpsective, we are correcting wave (i) of the broader C wave, from the bull perspective, we are beginning wave ( iii ) of the broader wave 3. Then, the moment of truth, where Schrodinger’s cat leaps from the box shrieking as it navigates the chasm of existence vs. non-existence, as one reality begins to collapse into oblivion. That point: $4277 (current swing high). If we pass this point, the bull view survives. If we about-face before reaching this point, the bear view survives.

Okay, “oblivion” is a slight exggeration. One of the bull or bear views don’t *really* collapse into oblivion, one or the other is rather increasingly phasing out of the possibility of existence. It’s possible, for example, that the cat that jumped out of the box was the real cat’s fake double, a doppleganger of sorts, to test the waters of reality. Not until we move below the $3490 point (previous swing low) will most of the bull view’s sense of self actually dissolve. But it will still maintain enough of a semblance of identity to cling to the belief that it still exists, until the low of $3k. Then it’s good-bye for a while, until a more authentic version of itself, its true self, appears, like the phoenix from out of the ashes.

In short, watch the current downward movement, and the following upward movement, very closely. For both we should continue down to the $3800-$4000 region. Then we should reverse upwards. If we then continue upwards beyond the recent swing high ($4277) we are more likely in a bull. Instead, if we reverse before then back down, we are more likely in a bear.

And if neither of the above scenarious come to pass, then there may be something more sinister at work. A third unexpected reality, which shall remain unnamed.
Comment: So we've passed the $4277 point, which means either 1) we are still in a B wave, and the C wave has not yet begun, or 2) we are in the early stages of a wave 3 bull.

But something strange is going on when compared to other crypto markets which have the same structure. Ethereum, and Litecoin, for example, have not passed beyond their recent swing high. They are still well below it. Which means a bear is still very much in play in these other markets. But why the discrepancy, whereas previously they tracked each other so closely? Normally, these other markets tracked what was happening with Bitcoin, only magnified.

Looking at the ETHBTC chart may give us a clue. And it appears that the ETH price has been crashing relative to Bitcoin over the last few days from almost 0.08 to 0.07! So is ETH (and other alts) flowing into BTC? It doesn't look like it. Looking at coinmarketcap.com 24 hour volume charts shows most of the volume in Bitcoin (and Ethereum) is coming from USD. So why are these other alts so laggey when compared to Bitcoin? Still looking for an answer.

Could Bitcoin be experiencing an upswing fakeout? Either the other alts should catch up very soon, or Bitcoin should back down. Either way, whatever happens will give more strength to one view versus the other (Bear vs. Bull). If alts catch up to Bitcoin, then the bull appears to be gaining momentum. If Bitcoin backs down, then the bear is gaining momentum. Let's see.
Comment: Finally an answer to the discrepancy.

A new token has recently ICO’d (ADA) and within a short time achieved a market cap of over $600 million. Looking at coinmarketcap.com and checking out the 24 hour volume rankings, the 2nd highest volume pair (after BTC/USD) is ADA/BTC with $80 million volume in 24 hours!

The price has been dropping though, so far loosing about $120+ million in market cap. And so there has been a fair amount of selling. But where is all that selling of ADA moving to? There is only one trading pair currently supported: ADA/BTC. So this might explain some of the strange behaviour of Bitcoin recently, moving counter to Ethereum, Litecoin, and generlally the rest of the cryptos, shooting up, instead of consolidating.
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