As in my previous post with the preliminary analysis for BTC, I have some thoughts about a possible Distribution Phrase (see link below).
As shown in chart, if the current level around 26000s hold for some days, it will be not impossible that BTC revisits the recent highs (around $30000 - $310000 area).
After that, given the current macro context (US default hypothesis, uncertain inflation and FED's policy on interest rate...), it would be hard for BTC to obtain much higher target.
With this distribution scenario, it's possible that the two CME $35000 and $20000 would be filled, respectively.
This third big move (to come) would be much more complex to predict than the first two which happened in January and March 2023. In my opinion, this difficulty is because that big players have left the market, one after another. It can be seen by looking at the extremely weak volume on Binance since the end of March 2023.
BTC becomes now much more volatile and not easy to trade. So take care and good luck!
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BTC is filling the CME gap at $26500
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BTC almost filled the CME gap $26500 and is bouncing hard. In my opinion, the magnet is $29500, another CME gap
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BTC could not break the EMA50D due to low buying interest & volume. It has been weaken. However, prices are still at supports to consider if one wants to short. Actually, BTC is still in a falling wedge
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BTC is bouncing from the support trendline of the falling wedge. I'm not sure if this bounce is a start for a break-out. Volumes are too week to predict any thing. As a result, I'll consider two scenarios as in the following screenshot, based on price action with this wedge pattern.
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Let's zoom out a little bit and we'll see a classic pattern: The inverted H&S. BTC is retesting the neckline with a local falling wedge pattern. If we don't have a very bad news like US default for e.g, we can expect that BTC will bounce from the neckline. So the initial Scenario 1 is still my preference.
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BTC is now under the resistance trendline of the falling wedge. Let's see if this wedge will be broken today.
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BTC was rejected by the wedge's resistance trenline, again. Need to observe reaction of BTC at $26000
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So, the wedge was broken down yesterday with news on Binance and CZ. BTC is retesting the neckline, very likely. We're closer to "Scenario 2" than Scenario 1.
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From my view, nothing changes. Scenario 2 is more favored. Now let's see if the neckline ($24500-$25000) would hold.
Trade closed manually
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I'll make a new chart with updated analyses
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I'd already closed this plan but finally BTC reached the CME 35000. Will it reach the resting one $20000. I'm not sure now.
You made it difficult. LPSY was already on May 29. Reconsider.
evasivesteering
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@averkie_skila, you're completely right. Since 26th May, I'd considered the Scenario 2, which was mentionned only in "Comment", not in the principal chart. I'll close this chart and update with a new one with my updated thoughts.