My Bearish take on BTC price in summer months. Although we had a big price drop, last few days I have seen much positive news, etc, but it looks like the price is just ignoring them, which makes me believe that the price can go lower. 12k? I have no idea, but this is how I think it can get there. First up to about 42k, then fairly quickly down to 12k with massive bounce and recovery by the end of the year... 12k is a long way from current levels... it must be some quick, sudden black swan event...don't think it can slowly grind to that low level. I'm not going short.. currently playing short-term upside bounces to the previous support-turned-resistance levels... works for now ... once it starts to reclaim higher levels I'll stop trading and just Hodl
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Obviously, I got the wrong direction to start with, but I still think that if we are destined to move lower, the market needs to give some hope first with higher prices and then make all cry. Maybe double bottom at 30k, then 38-42k -> new lows...
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Low was 31k to swing high -> 41k ... now lets see if 30k holds.. its been tested too many times in this short period of time... if it breaks 24-26k is nothing special on first leg down.
It is more likely we backtest the 2017 ATH at 20k. I know the 12k is a 80% correction of the ATH. But I dont think this bullrun is over. Out of technical perspective we didnt have a backtest of the 2017 ATH yet. This backtest might bring new strengh to the market to start the final run in this bullrun and repeat history again with a new major ATH.
Sinier
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@Bobbi78, sure these backtests bring new strength to the structure, but they also bring doubts, pessimism, etc, and always are accompanied by orchestrated fud campaigns. 20k is a great level to buy for a long term hold position, but if we get there and some fud news push the price lower with a close below that level, I think there can be a quick wick towards 12k to purge 20k longers with quick recovery few days ar even hours later... then moon .. of course...