Bitcoin Daily Update (day 220)
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “labeled $6,400 - $6,700 a no trade zone" / Sidelines
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 | S: $6,520
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to trend up after forming another higher low
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Continues to test both EMA’s for support
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -0.61% | 128: -2.96%
Volume: When looking at a combo of Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitfinex and yesterday was the lowest we have seen since 4/16/17. That dip in immediately preceded the 2017 bull run.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
analysis: Daily is forming a and weekly is forming a .
Cloud: 12h cloud continues to hold as resistance. 4h cloud shows strong support at $6,469 and price is currently trying to break out of the cloud.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly making price flip | Daily G3 < G2 | 12h R2 = R1 | 1h G8
Visible Range: When looking back 1 month there are 4 high nodes from $6,400 - $6,600 with low nodes from $6,600 - $7,250. If we can breakthrough $6,800 and support it then a retest of $7,000 is highly likely and a retest of $7,300 is to be expected
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.13% | 24h: - | 1w: -0.66% | 2w: +1.61% | 1m: +0.98%
Bands: Daily MA = $6,569 | 4h MA = $6,575
Trendline: Connect bottom of 8/14 to 9/8 and connect top of 7/29 to 9/4
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,668 | Down: $6,429
On Balance Volume:Has broken out of it’s triangle to the downside and trending down.
ADX: Indicates upcoming trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from 0.2 and appears to be forming lower high
(14 setting): Fit into and recently broke out to the upside, currently retesting for support
Stoch: Made recross on daily. Still on weekly, but starting to turn over.
Summary: Key horizontal resistance is starting to converge with the trend resistance from the . As resistance mounts the bears will start to fire more and more aggressively.
On the other hand the bulls have nearly rallied through the high nodes on the visible range with a 1 month lookback. If they can breakthrough $6,600 and support it then we should retest $7,000.
If that happens I will still be viewing it as a bull trap. The market is primed for a move like that to shakeout the skittish bears and to pull in the FOMO buyers. A move like this can often be identified by a long wick on top of the breakout candle and a quick retrace to the middle of the trading range.
@Excavo recently published an article titled:
“Types of false breakdowns”
I would recommend given that a read, if you haven’t already.
In the meantime I am keeping my eye on the divergences in the OBV’ and the RSI’. The OBV’ has broken down it’s triangle while the RSI’ has broken up and is currently retesting it for support.