I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “labeled $6,400 - $6,700 a no trade zone" / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 | S: $6,520
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to trend up after forming another higher low
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Continues to test both EMA’s for support
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -0.61% | 128: -2.96%
Volume: When looking at a combo of Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitfinex and Bitstamp yesterday was the lowest volume we have seen since 4/16/17. That dip in volume immediately preceded the 2017 bull run.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Daily is forming a hanging man and weekly is forming a doji.
Ichimoku Cloud: 12h cloud continues to hold as resistance. 4h cloud shows strong support at $6,469 and price is currently trying to break out of the cloud.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly making bullish price flip | Daily G3 < G2 | 12h R2 = R1 | 1h G8
Visible Range: When looking back 1 month there are 4 high volume nodes from $6,400 - $6,600 with low volume nodes from $6,600 - $7,250. If we can breakthrough $6,800 and support it then a retest of $7,000 is highly likely and a retest of $7,300 is to be expected
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.13% | 24h: - | 1w: -0.66% | 2w: +1.61% | 1m: +0.98%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA = $6,569 | 4h MA = $6,575
Trendline: Connect bottom of 8/14 to 9/8 and connect top of 7/29 to 9/4
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,668 | Down: $6,429
On Balance Volume:Has broken out of it’s triangle to the downside and trending down.
ADX: Indicates upcoming trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from 0.2 and appears to be forming lower high
RSI (14 setting): Fit into descending triangle and recently broke out to the upside, currently retesting for support
Stoch: Made bullish recross on daily. Still bullish on weekly, but starting to turn over.
Summary: Key horizontal resistance is starting to converge with the trend resistance from the descending triangle. As resistance mounts the bears will start to fire more and more aggressively.
On the other hand the bulls have nearly rallied through the high volume nodes on the visible range volume profile with a 1 month lookback. If they can breakthrough $6,600 and support it then we should retest $7,000.
If that happens I will still be viewing it as a bull trap. The market is primed for a move like that to shakeout the skittish bears and to pull in the FOMO buyers. A move like this can often be identified by a long wick on top of the breakout candle and a quick retrace to the middle of the trading range.
@Excavo recently published an article titled:
“Types of false breakdowns”
I would recommend given that a read, if you haven’t already.
In the meantime I am keeping my eye on the divergences in the OBV’ and the RSI’. The OBV’ has broken down it’s triangle while the RSI’ has broken up and is currently retesting it for support.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “labeled $6,400 - $6,700 a no trade zone" / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,600 | S: $6,520
BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to trend up after forming another higher low
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Continues to test both EMA’s for support
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -0.61% | 128: -2.96%
Volume: When looking at a combo of Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitfinex and Bitstamp yesterday was the lowest volume we have seen since 4/16/17. That dip in volume immediately preceded the 2017 bull run.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Daily is forming a hanging man and weekly is forming a doji.
Ichimoku Cloud: 12h cloud continues to hold as resistance. 4h cloud shows strong support at $6,469 and price is currently trying to break out of the cloud.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly making bullish price flip | Daily G3 < G2 | 12h R2 = R1 | 1h G8
Visible Range: When looking back 1 month there are 4 high volume nodes from $6,400 - $6,600 with low volume nodes from $6,600 - $7,250. If we can breakthrough $6,800 and support it then a retest of $7,000 is highly likely and a retest of $7,300 is to be expected
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.13% | 24h: - | 1w: -0.66% | 2w: +1.61% | 1m: +0.98%
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA = $6,569 | 4h MA = $6,575
Trendline: Connect bottom of 8/14 to 9/8 and connect top of 7/29 to 9/4
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,668 | Down: $6,429
On Balance Volume:Has broken out of it’s triangle to the downside and trending down.
ADX: Indicates upcoming trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from 0.2 and appears to be forming lower high
RSI (14 setting): Fit into descending triangle and recently broke out to the upside, currently retesting for support
Stoch: Made bullish recross on daily. Still bullish on weekly, but starting to turn over.
Summary: Key horizontal resistance is starting to converge with the trend resistance from the descending triangle. As resistance mounts the bears will start to fire more and more aggressively.
On the other hand the bulls have nearly rallied through the high volume nodes on the visible range volume profile with a 1 month lookback. If they can breakthrough $6,600 and support it then we should retest $7,000.
If that happens I will still be viewing it as a bull trap. The market is primed for a move like that to shakeout the skittish bears and to pull in the FOMO buyers. A move like this can often be identified by a long wick on top of the breakout candle and a quick retrace to the middle of the trading range.
@Excavo recently published an article titled:
“Types of false breakdowns”
I would recommend given that a read, if you haven’t already.
In the meantime I am keeping my eye on the divergences in the OBV’ and the RSI’. The OBV’ has broken down it’s triangle while the RSI’ has broken up and is currently retesting it for support.
Comment:
Here is the bull trap setup that I'll be watching:
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/