I saw ABCDE count from Phil and it makes 100% sense to me, and its a reason as to why I said we cant lose our guard just yet. I differ with him a little on the specific wave count, I believe it is a 3-3-3-3-3 (which means the end of this larger scale Bitcoin correction), but he sees a 5-3-5-3-5 corrective pattern. Either way, the end target is still the same for both of us, around the lower $6k support region.
To the left is the 8 hour time frame, showing the larger scale resistances that we are likely to come into play with, and how the indicators are all showing signs. I also have the shorting opportunity and target listed. However, I recommend only doing a small stop loss of 1% or less. There is no reason to leave it open after anything like that. Just continue to re-analyze and open new short positions.
On the right, we have the 30 minute time frame with the wave count broken down to the minute. I think we still reach the $9100 target. BUT, we must be very very careful and not follow into the pit of ignorance. It's possible the $9100 target is failed to be reached. I do think we retrace back down for a long way.
Personally, since I've started school back up, my risk management has seriously been awful. I took a bigger loss than I should have last night, and I need to freaking drop out of school so I can focus on this more hahahaha. Risk management is so important guys. And if you don't manage the situation, then you will pay other people for it like I did last night. But at the end of the day, I have fun doing this. It's like playing sports to me, I'm competitive as hell, but if I'm not having fun doing what I love then its not worth it.
Speaking of fun... Fun Fact: I'm probably gonna get another pit bull and name him Jerome. My current dog Tyrone needs a new bud.
I'm not freaking playing around anymore with my risk management and lack of patience. If you guys ever see me lose patience and not wait for full confirmation on here, cuss me out. That loss last night pissed me off. Here is a short term play on BTC where I'm cutting losses after 0.37%. Targeting this top line resistance, OR until indicators tell me otherwise.
Also, make sure you guys use an excel sheet to track performance and profit gain on each trade so you can measure gains and losses. It's the only way you will know how well you are actually managing your risk. It keeps you accountable as well.
Boom. There's the confirmation
This 3 candle formation is called an evening star! It is a bearish signal for a short-term trend reversal (5 minute scale). It is the opposite of the morning star I showed you all yesterday. This has my trade set up a bit worried!
There it is guys! Just like that my stop loss was triggered. I don't mind a .37% loss tho. But look! We found support on a descending wedge. I'm re-entering for this play!
Sorry, forgot photo. Moving fast. In class lol.
Here is a wave count with a possible raised target. We still look for profit in this green box for this short-term trade. Sorry for all the updates guys, i'm annoying. But that's the price you pay for following me haha.
So what a lot of analyst on twitter are doing is sharing their ideas as to what the proper wave count is. This came up to be the most logical and I 100% agree with it. At the end of the day, we are here to help each other. Feel free to post your own ideas in the comments, and I'd gladly consider them if they are viable.
If you guys don't, follow @PhilakoneCrypto on twitter. He's the guy I've learned most of this stuff from and has much more experience than me. I am still learning, but he is definitely a credible resource, someone I would recommend. He updates even more than I do, and is a little more crazy, but you can't help but enjoy what he does. He too focuses on teaching others and is a great resource in that area of expertise.
No full confirmation of a full downtrend just yet. But here would be some support zones if that were to happen.
I refuse to be fooled by the bears again! I'm abandoning the assumption from my twitter friends. Let's simplify this from our original count. This is a classic Flat ABC corrective pattern if we alternate between this and the first sharp ABC. If this is right, then I will feel stupid for not noticing it in the first place. I hate corrective periods...
Starting to feel stupid for making this mistake. We're making progress here. But as for a lesson here, when the main trend is still down, any corrective wave to the downtrend (meaning a wave going up - or opposite of the main trend) is labeled ABC or ABCDE or WXY or WXYXZ. So the reason why you see many rules being broken is because we are still correcting and the correct wave count includes the ABC count for these upwards corrective waves. This current wave we are on can still definitely extend upwards, but we should be seeing a correction soon before we head up, right around that support line.
Alright guys, so I found out that I can freaking short on Kraken!!! So I'm messing around with that and I'm driving the price of Bitcoin down to $2. No just kidding.
But anyways, this TWO candle pattern is called a Bearish Hamari. Indication of a down trend. It is when you have a long green candle followed by a red candle whose open starts lower than the close of the green candle. The opposite also works in the case of a Bullish Hamari!
Anways, everything is following expectations, we may be on a short-term downtrend to the $8k level here.
Alright guys, I have reason to believe that this may be the end of the run. I count an ABCDE count within this C wave that alternates with the ABC in the preceding (blue) A wave. It just entered our green target zone, and it is possible we never quite reach this $9000 target. Please be careful, anything can happen during this corrections, BUT we must always react to the data we are given. Right now, this is a very possible ordeal, it may even be likely.
Here are support zones where we may stop along the way, but our target is still within that yellow zone.
Very interesting moment here. We may hit an apex point soon. Where we go from there is the question. We may not get this wave E, but its wise to remember that Bulls still have control here. If we reach my $9100 target, not only will i be confused and happy on how we got here, but I will also open a nice short position.
Alright guys, I'm officially calling the top. Which is dangerous. Because this could go higher, as this has been a very very hard corrective wave to count. But I like my higher degree indicators along with what I think to be the correct final count. Here's my short set-up and target.
No idea how we got there but we managed to do so.
Guys so I'm already looking to take profit in that green box. We still have channel line support with previous resistance serving as support. If we break that, then I will continue to short. But there is no reason for me to hold onto this short position if it finds support there. This could give us an alternative wave count that leads us higher. ANYTHING is possible here. There are many many options.
Very very very very very very critical moment here from Bitcoin. It is most important that you all just wait for confirmation here. But there are a lot of mixed signals in the market, and we must analyze all possible situations here.
Here are the 3 most likely scenarios in my opinion. We're are currently in a diagonal (5 min scale), and they typically break out in big moves. I'm in most agreement with the neutral option here, but we must see where these next few hours takes us. We could go up, or we could go down, either way could happen. Personally, my bias is the neutral to bearish scenarios. I don't think we re-test the resistance, but it is possible.
Notice how on bottom support, if you take that line, and draw a parallel, we automatically find a resistance, that is usually a bearish sign. So we need to take that into consideration. I cannot urge enough how important it is to wait wait wait for confirmation.
Key confirmation indicators:
Volume: Make sure volume increases with whatever trend you are seeing
MACD: Leveling off or divergence indicates the end of runs on the most appropriate time scale
RSI: Check for peaks on RSI, is the next high lower in RSI strength? Is the next low higher on RSI strength?
EMAs: Look for resistances and supports on EMAs.
Good luck guys! I'll keep you all updated.
Here is what's going on now. Literally anything can happen in this moment. The suspense in killing me.
A break through $7850 would confirm a Head and Shoulder's reversal to our wave C target. Wave C is usually the most intense guys. Whatever happens soon here is going to be wild as hell.
Alright guys, so we still needs to close below that $7850 level to confirm the head and shoulders and trend reversal. BUT, I'm pretty bearish right now.
But check this out. Let's look at our indicators on the 1 HOUR time frame! Crazy right? It's been a perfect indicator for the momentum of this corrective period.
Notice how after each major dip we see the Stoch RSI become a perfect indicator of the end of each wave. When we get into major dips such as this, we notice that it stays in the oversold area for a longer period, where it represents each ABCDE wave going down. That's when I'm going to look to take profit on this short that I entered. When the 1 Hour Stoch RSI reaches an oversold area.
Then, what am I going to do next? I'm going to look on smaller time frames too see if there is one where the Stoch RSI indicates the end of each wave of these major dips (ABCDE, 3 arrows) on a more accurate level of Overbought to Oversold.
So, as mentioned before, there is also the neutral scenario, which is now the bull scenario. And this is still very possible as well. If we find support at this apex and don't close below the Head and Shoulder's critical level, then we could possible fight for another day up to this C target for a lovely 7.5% gain. We'll see what happens shortly.
Be very careful if you guys are still long. On the 30 minute scale we have evidence of a bearish spinning top along with a bearish hammer. All indicators on this and 1 hour time frames are bearish. If this leads us into the C wave, it will be a nasty drop.
Bitcoin never fails to surprise me. Here is a possible 5-3-5-3-5 pattern that we could see here. Here are the two targets. Please be careful with this 5th wave. They often fall short of targets.
Since I'll be busy for most of the day, here's my plan. It's likely to change from here, but I like to give myself a general look of what I could expect before changing my analysis to what is given by the market.
Update: Next few hours will be critical. I have many many resistances shown on the chart, and the arrows may show possibilities of direction. However, pay attention to the green line at the top, that refers to the max height. That is as high as we can go, simply because wave C was shorter than wave A. So, wave E must be shorter. We will see where it goes. It's possible we sit well into the target box, it is also possible we just hit it with the wick as we fall just shy. Let's see how this plays out! Hope you all are profiting well during this time.
Sorry if the updates are getting to be too much, I just want to continue to show my thoughts. Here is my scenario. I'm bearishly biased here. I believe that a downtrend to $8520 is imminent, irregardless of the bulls vs bears. But we would need to break $9060 to keep this uptrend going. And from using all of my indicators, it looks very unlikely. But in the past, I've been wrong, so there's nothing saying that I can't be wrong again here.
Here are my support zones and targets along the way, I'm using fib extrapolation back to this bottom support that we've formed since April 2016. It's a pretty damn strong support. Along with fib extension, i noticed that it also matches nicely with fib levels ALONG with major activity in those zones. Please please please be cautious during this downtrend. They often fool me, and you can catch the falling knife far too soon. We must be patient, confirm indicators as well as wave count. Counting these waves will be a pain in the ass, as they have been on this uptrend. But we will prevail!. If you are a hodler, it would be bad to add to long positions after this target is hit. I believe an uptrend is imminent following this downtrend. Funny enough, the time frame matches perfectly with the Chinese New Year. Good luck guys!
Guys, here is an awesome image of a possible Head and shoulders reversal we could be getting here.
Along with elliot wave theory, the heady and shoulders plays a familiar, critical point of reversal. They typically form at the top or bottom of the main trend. Where usually in impulse waves, the waves 2 to 3 to 4 form the shoulder, then wave 5 forms the head. After that, when the downtrend begins, waves A and B form with the right shoulder, usually resulting in a very strong wave 3 that breaks the neckline. That is why breaking the neckline is so important. Because usually it confirms a 3rd wave, or C wave.
In this case, because the upwards trend was still a part of the overall down correction, we label it a bit differently. NOW, instead of it being a 2-3-4-5-A-B-C it is now a B-C-D-E-1-2-3 formation. Take a look at the picture if you're a bit confused as to what I mean.
Nonetheless, with a break of $8551, we can confirm this downtrend to our Target 1.3.
Guys please be careful here! Something isn't right with the wave count! I think we have a reversal on our hands. Even though we now have pressure on all of our hourly timelines, our Daily MACD is still pushing up. I'm looking for a long position in this region, we'll continue to analyze and see where this thing goes.
Here it is guys, this wave count finallyyyyy makes sense!!! I'm entering long here, with a stop loss very tight to where we are now. I would like to target the $9100 range first before testing the $9400 area based off of fib extension and resistances. The bears will have to wait, and I think the bulls can make an impression here.