- This is a bearish technical analysis of Bitcoin. It's supported by technical tools, and I am not saying this is going to happen; this is just a scenario because we need to consider all possibilities.
- First of all, we need to take a look at the bearish wave from November 2021 to November 2022. It definitely looks like an impulse wave; it's pretty obvious, but I have seen a lot of failed impulses on the other side. You may say that it's not an impulse but a WXYXZ triple-three corrective pattern. It's possible, but in my opinion, these patterns tend to have more sideways price action than steep. You may also say that it's an ABC correction, but there are clearly 5 waves.
- Since November 2022, Bitcoin has been going upward. The wave looks very strong, and I think we will reach levels above 25K before a potential drop to 10k to complete an ABC correction. It's very likely that this is going to happen.
- Currently we are in wave B, which is a corrective wave, and we could end this wave at around 20k or 19k at the 0.618 FIB retracement.
- I do not watch news often, to be honest; I am more of a technical guy, but I can't ignore the Binance bad news. There is speculation about the closing of the Binance US exchange, and their stable coin, Binance USD (BUSD), has some problems as well. But I am not surprised at all. A potential collapse of Binance could send Bitcoin to 10k in just a matter of days. For example, you can take a look at the COVID crash in 2020; it was a pretty fast liquidation of longs.
- This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
- 10k is a strong psychological level, and there is plenty of reason to buy Bitcoin here. 0.618 LOG FIB retracement and the start of the GAP are definitely reasonable targets.
- Like I said before, this analysis is just a scenario that could happen to give you more perspective on the market. I always have a bullish and a bearish scenario ready to execute, so it's not about being wrong or right; this is not how you trade markets.
- Let me know in the comment section, do you think Bitcoin is going to drop to 10k? Or we are going to a new all time high.
- Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
