As I demonstrated in my last idea which you can see its screenshot below (Full Article Link Bellow) that we need more info and more candles to get printed so we can begin to say wether BTC is in accumulation or redistribution phase. And right now after BTC failed to break Last Point Of Supply and rejected, we are seeing a lower low getting printed, although that's not the best news, but that shows us that we need to be prepared and position ourselves accordingly.
And right now we can clearly see that BTC have entered its backup action phase, where a smaller version of wyckoff method is playing out. I have noted the events in wyckoff method in the chart and projected the price action which is probably going to play out going forward. Price now may rise to middle of the wyckoff channel then gets rejected that forms the LPSY in Backup Action before dumping again to print a local lower low (below SOW - bold red line) or a golbal lower low (below SC - dotted red line) and forming the last LPSY which is where I personally am going to position myself right there.
Although I should note that there is still a chance for this idea to get invalidated if we start rally higher and print a higher high, break above the 35/36k resistant and head to our main resistant area of 42k, and when that happens I'm going to start thinking that this whole price action of last few weeks may have been an accumulation, but we sure need to see BTC break above 42k resistant and print a higher high, that's the key. But for now the chances are low as BTC is close to the bottom of the channel and we don't see buyers showing any sign of strengths. I should note that the higher the volatility at this stage the more chance BTC is in redistribution rather than accumulation.
How much price can dump if this idea plays out? I don't know and I don't care at this moment, all care about is that I can open my position with minimum risk possible, and on that note I'm going to end here.
For this idea to get invalidated, we need to see volume coming in and increase at rallies upward and decrease at reaction downward, that shows us that buyers are in control, and right now we don't see that. this simple structure is valid and helpful in both directions as it is easy to identify, if we are in a downtrend we should see volume coming in and increase at rallies downward and decrease at reactions upward which what we can observe right now in 1H - 4H timeframes in the chart.
Rae_Crypto
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@rouzwelt, Nice chart makes sense if we are in a Wyckoff Redistribution it means bear market but lets wait and watch closely it could be a big trap!
rouzwelt
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@Rae_Crypto, thank you mate. happy it was helpful, and yes man, sure it can be a nasty trap and still has chance to reverse and head high, that's why as you said we need to wait for more candles to get printed and then decide whether its redistribution or accumulation, but the main goal of my idea was to show that the probability of it being a redistribution is more, based on the candles printed until now and the info we have at this stage.