My last post was at the begining of the uptrend which is still in play however with a correction and sideways accumulation right under the sell wall.
That said, there's nothing concerning right now and i did not make any changes to my position.
However, since we are in a sideways trading range, we have an opportunity to take a short at the top and long at the bottom.
So, i will be looking for invalidation of an upswing at 49k before taking a short and vice versa for the downswing at 43k.
For risk management and hedging purposes, i'll not short 100% of my account, but instead between 15% - 50% and keep both positions open, unless one of them gets invalidated.
BTW, My 100k target has changed as we have continued accumulation. I'm now looking at 123k as the pnf horizontal count suggests and we keep on accumulating!
Normally i don't trade intraday charts, but this is a good opportunity i don't want to miss and besides, i'd like to practice some swing trade as i have lots of free time now :)
I am not so convinced this is a reaccumulation at all. This nasty drop two days ago looked A LOT like the one on 18. of April, which broke the uptrend channel downwards on high volume.
And similar to this we trade now sideways just a little above the 50 EMA on the daily.
I think we might have just seen a local top at 52,9 k and this is just another distribution. The BTC broke down the original uptrend channel on 26. of August and never got back in since - same like in April.
The distribution fractal is almost completed. We just miss the LPSY now. A weak rally up to 49 would indeed be a good opportunity to close longs or even start shorting, but i think chances are high the price will not stop at 43k or 42k in the subsequent drop. It might go substantially lower.
What to expect next?
In April it dropped again and bounced at the 100 EMA to form the LPSY formation. We might see a similar move now with another drop down to 42k. But the whole structure we have now is much more compact, both in range and time. So perhaps we might see a shorter version of the story.
I still wait for more confirmation and a better exit position to close at least half of my longs. But of course this is dangerous gambling - it might just drop again not not come up for some time.
We had this massive accumulation in June and July. And therefore i am still not 100% sure this is distribution again. But the recent price action resembles distribution quite perfectly.
BitcoinMillio18
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@benarni, Dİstribution and Accumulation are evil twins, therefore we should take causality in to account. By that i mean the huge accumulation. We did not see the markup yet and we are in phase D of accumulation. We hit the bottom of resistance order block and now consolidating between that and the accumulation area. This is bullish and further counting! I expect a breakout before the end of September and will swing trade until then.
benarni
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I hope you are right. But i lack faith right now. Next weeks will be interesting.
shoupjrs
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I was looking forward to your next post BitcoinMillio18. Wanted to hear your thoughts at the current BTC action, after following your patience up until the start of your final BTC bull confirmation post. I continue to appreciate your time sharing your ideas and potential adjustments! I agree, We all want to win together.
BitcoinMillio18
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@shoupjrs, well thank you for your support. I really spend time, effort and money for these updates and i work hard to get better each time. This is free information and yet some people think they can getaway with their responsibilities and put the blame on me. I'm very disappointed by these trolls, but it is what it is.
shoupjrs
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@BitcoinMillio18, I feel the money that was pushed out on leverage and weak hands are going to come back. September is a low month historically. I am watching ranges and have money set back for next drop, and or uptrend confirmation. The SEC is attempting to implement regulation (defining crypto as security) with lawsuits threats to coinbase to postpone the climb, however I don't feel the value of BTC and the market in general can be any better now. Just my personal opinion hearing from both optimists and pessimists.
BitcoinMillio18
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@shoupjrs, leverage is good if you use it correctly for hedging purposes with a proper stop loss and risk management. Most leveraged traders are using it to become millionaire overnight. They will always exist, but i think from the top of this trading range, there will be a final quick drop to bottom and they will give up the upcoming rally. That's the goal of these shakeouts.