BITCOIN CRASH OR READY FOR PUMP?! Supercycle or Bull Trap?!
Bitcoin has enjoyed a huge pump from 29K to 40K, with the move from 34K to 40K being especially explosive. Whether the move was due in part, in whole, or have nothing to do with the Amazon rumors, we now need to look at the technical picture of Bitcoin price action following the pump.
The first thing to note is that price failed to break above the 40K psychological level. It attempted to break 40K twice, but the second time ended up being a false breakout / a bull trap as price collapsed after spiking above 40K. After the false breakout, price dropped to a low of 36.4K, which is the 200MAs on the 15 Minute timeframe, and so far is using it as support. If this level can hold, then this might be a launchpad for another bullish leg up. †hat said, it will be very important for the most recent swing low of 36.4K to hold. If price breaks and closes below 36.4K, then there is a high likelihood of another leg down following the crash from 40.5K to 36.4K.
Another thing to note is that on the daily timeframe, price is testing the 200 EMA and is so far getting rejected as the daily candle has a huge wick. It will be important for bulls to claim the 38.6K level in order to establish bullish momentum on the daily timeframe, which could then lead to a larger macro reversal above 40-42K and eventually 50K, 59K, 64K, and new All Time Highs. Having a daily close above 38.6K will be the first step in reaching those higher price targets.
As you can see, Bitcoin is right now at a critical level. If price can continue rallying, then the probability of a supercycle is much higher. Alternatively, if price starts to slip here, then we will have another rejection at the 200EMA on the daily timeframe, which could lead price to collapse below previous lows of 28.8-30K and test 26.5K, 24K, and even 20K. So whether we are heading to 20K first or 100K first will depend a lot on what happens the next few days around this price level. Make sure you are prepared for either scenario.
The first thing to note is that price failed to break above the 40K psychological level. It attempted to break 40K twice, but the second time ended up being a false breakout / a bull trap as price collapsed after spiking above 40K. After the false breakout, price dropped to a low of 36.4K, which is the 200MAs on the 15 Minute timeframe, and so far is using it as support. If this level can hold, then this might be a launchpad for another bullish leg up. †hat said, it will be very important for the most recent swing low of 36.4K to hold. If price breaks and closes below 36.4K, then there is a high likelihood of another leg down following the crash from 40.5K to 36.4K.
Another thing to note is that on the daily timeframe, price is testing the 200 EMA and is so far getting rejected as the daily candle has a huge wick. It will be important for bulls to claim the 38.6K level in order to establish bullish momentum on the daily timeframe, which could then lead to a larger macro reversal above 40-42K and eventually 50K, 59K, 64K, and new All Time Highs. Having a daily close above 38.6K will be the first step in reaching those higher price targets.
As you can see, Bitcoin is right now at a critical level. If price can continue rallying, then the probability of a supercycle is much higher. Alternatively, if price starts to slip here, then we will have another rejection at the 200EMA on the daily timeframe, which could lead price to collapse below previous lows of 28.8-30K and test 26.5K, 24K, and even 20K. So whether we are heading to 20K first or 100K first will depend a lot on what happens the next few days around this price level. Make sure you are prepared for either scenario.
