Happy new year everyone. It has been months since I've last posted. The bear market has been rough for everyone, including myself, and while I don't think we'll be headed towards a massive bull trend anytime soon, it might be too soon to let go of hope now. In this post, I'll explore a speculative scenario in which we retest 14K before moving to retest 28k, similar to the move we have seen in 2019.
This post is not financial advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Any analysis or prediction about the future price of Bitcoin should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. With that being said, let's consider the following scenario:
Analysis - I have taken fractals from the past, 2019, from historical price action that we refer to as an 'echo bubble'. - According to the fractals, one possible scenario is that we tap 14K, before making a 100% move up to 28k. - This would be a completely reasonable trajectory to have in mind, considering that we have seen a case for Bitcoin moving from 4k to 14K - Eventually, we would peak around summer of 2023, with everyone thinking that the macro bull market has resumed. - Personally, if this speculative scenario plays out, I would revert back to holding a massive cash position until the dust settles again. - People, including myself, thought we'd never get back below 20k, and here we are now, with people calling for 7k.
Conclusion What I have witnessed in the past year was terrifying. Lots of people who have made generational wealth (both through crypto and equities) from 2017 to 2021, have lost everything. By everything, I don't mean seeing -70/80% losses on their accounts. I mean literally seeing nothing but 0. These were people who we thought have 'supposedly made it'. We can even take the case of the whales who had deposits on FTX. Of course, there were small retail investors who have lost their humble earnings, but there were also individuals who have lost millions on FTX. The market is the great humiliator, and will take from the impatient, and transfer wealth to the patient. Don't forget that there's always plenty of opportunities, and that more likely than not, you will have a chance to buy cheap Bitcoin - cheaper than you've ever anticipated. Stick to the plan, and make sure you accumulate assets of value. As to what is considered 'valuable', is something you have to ask yourself.
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This is the result of tampering inflation and the recession which is normal. I think this will be the case as long as the federal reserve is still fighting inflation down, the FTX scandal just made it worse. Crypto seems dependent on money printing in a sense as we saw how fast it ballooned from 2020 to 2021 before it popped and got worse when the federal reserve chair started announcing he's hiking rates. Most of the market is pretty much in the same disarray. I have been ignoring crypto for the most part since early last year. I just buy a little here and there and move on. Crypto does burn the weak, but when it is rising like a mother, everyone screams people are so lucky to have gotten it when it was super low. They just never paid attention to the long waiting period where everyone is saying, "Crypto is a scam!" and your portfolio continues to tank. So I could be an idiot (I mean Im not a stock market scholar so that could be truer then I want to beleive), but Ill just keep waiting until it returns. Its not really much fun, but not much else I can do. This is where both stupidity and blind faith for that stroke of luck have to come in.
I honestly dont think we will see much of anything until end of 2023 or the year 2024. Election years seem prime time for good market rises and depending on who is predicted to win, the market could jump further.
danish145
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@Harley_Drake, agree nothing till end of 2023 or election race