Bitcoin is currently in a clear distribution phase, as supported by volume and the fact that big players are selling and small players are buying (seen by the amount of BTC wallets holding BTC increasing, with those wallets having smaller number of BTC in them).
Next:
A shark pattern has emerged on the 4 hour chart, and BTC has bounced around the 1-0.886 retracement area. Usually in a circumstance like this, Take Profit would be around 50% of BC, which in this case is around the same area of 22.8k. The bounce point from C-D leg would complete the bullish harmonic pattern and can potentially signal the continuation of the downtrend.
If we measure the 1.618 of OX we get 18,250. If we measure the 2.236 of a potential CD at 22.8k we get the exact same point - 18,250. Now this is more than just coincidental given the PSY level on the Redistribution schematic.
Next, the 2.236 level in harmonics are usually seen in patterns like the Crab, Gartley, Shark or Partizan. This bearish leg can bounce at 1.618 (19.5k) and continue to fall straight down to 2.236 (18,250) which is likely. This is where we close our SHORT and flip LONG.
Wyckoff Law mentions how we can have an extreme impulse towards BC (Buying Climax) to test the previous Preliminary Supply. Now there is a reason we are not choosing 23.5k for this (as you can see in the pattern on the right hand side, the point next to the letters "Phase A" is likely to be 23.5k.
An automatic rally (AR) can occur when selling volume has diminished. There are likely going to be buyers buying at the 0.5 or 0.618 retracement of CD before last chance SHORT retesting UT/ST around 22.7k.
Finally, stocks look like they are about to crash and should drag Bitcoin down with it. DXY is also rallying and showing no signs of slowing down mid term.
Also, the 200MA weekly is not that important here but a good resistance level in case we somehow break 22.8k. I think not likely though.
Comment
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Oh and look at this trendline, also compare it with time towards the ETH merge September 15th... isnt that conincidental :P
A working pattern , I think I've already seen it work on a similar asset
erykowsky
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My previous trade played out with btc hitting 25k. Shorting eth from 2k and btc from 25. Waiting for 12k btc here. Currently waiting only for short entry in solana. Expecting it do be second luna
LightningThunderTrades
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lots of confluence and price action theories. if ever it goes to that level ill remember you
reiiss7
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@lyssander8, sure! if you also draw a line from A - C and keep it going price could drop to that point and form a "Falling Wedge" bullish pattern and bring it right back up to 22k. The timeline of that would be after September 15th , when ETH merge Sell the News dump happens