Jelmerrr
Short

Let's short the king (BTC) (Updated) Final target: $4400.-

BITTREX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether
Risk: Medium

Please be advised that this is only an idea, so you are responsible for any losses yourself.

Dear followers,

This is only an update of my previous idea BTC             -1.60% idea, but I post this updated chart and explanation to keep a clear overview of it. (See related ideas for the previous updates) We reached our first target $9600 and we are heading towards our next target. I'm short for an average of $11.318,02 te be precisely and I took some profits at the first target. Yesterday, I changed my SL to $9550. So it's impossible to lose money in this trade for me now. I already made a huge profit.

I posted my previous idea when BTC             was in a bullish recovery, so a lot of people were targetting BTC             on $20.000,- again. I posted my bearish idea and I received some angry messages on Twitter and people called me crazy and an idiot. No hard feelings, but these are emotional messages and I think the chance is high that you are also not able turn of emotions in a trade. Please, turn of your emotions if you trade. I wish everyone the best and high profits. Let's say this: I'm not always right but I just follow my TA and I know I'm more often right then wrong. That's how I make my profits. If you don't agree, please post your chart and we can discuss it in a normal way. I like to see and discuss other ideas in a normal way. That's why we are here and how we learn from each other. :)

For me it's very simple: we are down $12.000 within 3 months. We saw three lower highs and a double top is formed. Sorry, but it's very clear for me that we are in a bearish market and I'm happy that I'm not one of the HODL-ers. My Twitter followers know, that I have a 100% cash position in crypto for the first time since 2014. I sold all my positions on the 7th of March. It was a good choice for now. I'll buy back crypto when the time is there. E.g.: our final target 50ma weekly can be a good entry point. But first let's see how things will develop.

Analysis:
What we saw was a recovery in a downtrend where we are in since 12-30 after we broke a main support line. (Dotted red line). That downtrend was confirmed again after we broke another strong support. (2-16, red dotted line). We recovered towards resistance (2) as expected and we went down from there.

Support 1 is a strong support level , but I wouldn't be suprised if we will break it next days/ weeks. Around this support level we find the raising 200ma (our previous final target). This makes this level even stronger. A break through these supports will accelerate a big sell-off towards the raising weekly 50 ma (4200 now). I expect the 50ma weekly around 4400 when we reach it. A bounce from support 1 might give us the chance to expand short positions again around resistance 2, because we take partially profit at each profit target.

Profit targets:
Target 1: 9600 (Reached: Previous idea)
Target 2: 7650 (support line 1)
Target 3: 6200
Target 4: 50ma weekly (Now 4200, then around 4400?)

In summary, we are in a downtrend and support (1) is going to be a though one. If we bounce it. I'll expand my short positions around resistance (2) and I'll take profit at the profit targets.

I'm sorry for the Bitcoin             -1.60% -2.24% lovers again and good luck!

Please, follow and like for more trading ideas.

Questions? Feel free to ask and your feedback is welcome!
Comment:

A cup with handle triggered a quick recovery. Now a bullish flag is forming. I expect a continuation of the recovery towards 9.950-10.100. No worries we are still bearish. We can't go down in a straight line. :)
Trade active: BTC recovered a little less then expected. We just broke the old top and temporary support around 9400. 50ma (hourly) is our next support. A close below will automatically lead us towards the dubble bottom around 8400. A break of this level will accelerate the sell of towards 200ma daily and support (1) our next target. :)

Trade active:

We just broke the double bottom of my previous update! A close below will take us to our second target quickly. We find a main support level for BTC here since July 2017. I'll take partial profit around $8010,- because this is a very strong support. I'll take profit a little bit earlier as mentioned in my original idea, because support (1) is a raising support. If we break this support (1) Bitcoin is officially in a long term downtrend and I expect a crash towards our $4400,- (50ma) price target within a few months! If we bounce from support (1) I'll expand my short positions again at higher levels.
Trade closed: target reached: Second target reached. :) I'll keep updating this chart for the next targets
Not sure about final target, I'm setting buy orders between 2-4,5k. There are too many twitter gurus and traders from the street, I'd say we need to get them and their followers rekt first, before we can start new bull cycle.
+1 Reply
@kaka900, I agree we can go lower, but I absolutely expect a bounce from the 50ma (weekly). We bounced the 20ma perfectly after the Mt. Gox crash and the crash from the 20.000 dollar top. Then we bounced the 200ma after another crash. It's likely this level is the next one. We will find 3 strong support levels around the final target. The next main raising support line, 50ma weekly and 20ma monthly. So this is very strong support zone. I'll set buy orders around these levels. Let's see wheter we can lower after the bounce or that we can continue the long-term uptrend. :)
Reply
Watch out thought, if we do the exact same as 2014 it's not impossible we go to 13k before falling.
+1 Reply
MrRenev MrRenev
+1 Reply
MrRenev MrRenev
@MrRenev, @Jelmerrr My bad I'm too sick to draw correctly... We're actually exact same as 2014 and at the point just before we crash there.
Up to now we followed the EXACT same path but twice or thrice as fast. Does it mean we continue doing the same? Not necesserally. But I wouldn't risk going long lol.

Plus it looks very very much like some whales and making it look the same on purpose... With these 1000$ price up or down in 10 seconds 1k BTC orders.
+1 Reply
@MrRenev, Thanks for sharing. Nice that you found this! It indeed has similarities. Let's see if history repeats itself. Personally I don't think we will beat the resistance. (Your purple line)
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new targets?
Reply
@ltcneo, The targets are mentioned in the idea. Please be aware that target 2 and 4 can change. 2 is a raising line and 4 is a raising avg ;)
Reply
Thanks for sharing
Reply
Jelmerrr streamDr
@streamDr, Np! :)
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