You might also have noticed this yourself if looking at your own exchange, if you're using Bittrex for example. On Bittrex the 30 day moving average of BTCUSDT (USD Tether per BTC ) has been falling since December 27 2017 and is now on the same level as August 4 2017 when the price of BTC was 2846 USDT!
There's a number of problems with just looking at one pair on your own exchange, or one of the biggest ones for that matter though:
- is spread on a number of exchanges and is moving between exhanges.
New and popular exchanges are established all the time.
is spread on many other trading pairs, for example BTCETH, and ether can also be bought for fiat.
However, thers's a problem with this analysis also. Trading on livecoinwatch and coinmarketcap rely on information from the exchanges, and as recently documented by Sylvain Ribes, such information cannot always be trusted. He estimated that 4 billion USD daily cryptocurrency is fabricated, and neither livecoinwatch nor coinmarketcap seems to have addressed the problem.
Where does that leave us? Without correction from the data aggregators it is hard to say know at what time how much fabricated data was introduced, and thus what the real trend is.
bitcoinity. org is a bitcoin trading data aggregator which does not include the 4 billion obviously fabricated (simply because they haven't included many exchanges at all). Here we still see a similar picture to the one above, albeit with BTC as base currency, or even with trades per minute; that the minimum/base combined is climbing steadily from 50k to 100k per day.
I recommend taking a look at the different statistics on data.bitcoinity.org, for example the exchanges list gives quite another rank than if you only look at , by comparing the order books (explanation here.
Conclusion? I does not look like the price of BTC from all time high ( ATH ) has really been falling on falling in a 3–6 months perspective, if so we should have seen a consistent decrease of since ATH similar to the increase before. However, the might not be very much higher either, but quite probably "different". In the longterm, seems to be looking good for BTC .
This idea was first published on Steemit.com