While I believe that BTC is in a continuation of the Bull Market and new all time highs are in the not too distant future, the current situation is less clear. Looking at the chart you will see an overall plot of BTC prices since the last all time high through the correction which reached a low of 68% from the high on Feb 6th you will see one failed attempt at a rally prior to the current one.
An important indicator here is the yellow dotted trend line I've drawn showing the angle and 4 connecting points along that angle of the decline. You can see that as of yesterday we are now for the first time since the ATH (all time high) closing candles above the trend line. I view this as a very positive indicator. However we are also rapidly approaching a point of resistance at $11,297.00 and the 0.382 Fibonacci line. To declare that we are in at least a short term recovery we must close a daily candle above the 0.382 resistance line. From there it's pretty clear sailing to the 0.50 Fibonacci line at $12,929.00 which is the next test for any advance we can expect or hope for. Should we close above the 0.50 line we are then confirming a new bull run for BTC which will lift all the ALT coins which are healthy otherwise. Always keep in mind that the ALT coins I have recommended will out perform and some will outperform BTC.
One example at the moment that is out performing from my recommended ALT coin list is ADA (Cardano) This coin is still a great buy for a long term (months) hold.
On the caution side, if we fail to hold at either of the lines I've already described, we will likely decline to retest the resistance levels we have already seen. Some of those would be the FIB line at 0.236 or $9277.00 then the $8,000.00 area and even $6066.00 which was the low point in the current correction. I must point out that even if this occurs, these MUST be viewed as new opportunities to add to your portfolio at a discount. A good trader should always be sitting a bit of cash from his previous profits to invest in these pullbacks and or be adding new money.
My personal strategy in the last couple of weeks has been to keep a spread of buys and sells at about 1.3% steps around the current BTC price. For example 5 buys and 5 sells placed 1.3% apart (around $130.00 spread) each. In this trade I've used the value of one BTC divided to 0.1 for each buy sell position. This strategy has netted about at 16% ROI over the last couple of weeks just on the cyclic moves of BTC in it's current trading range. As of this writing this is still a sound strategy in my opinion and I'm actively trading on it. This is actually one of the safest trading strategies you can use but it requires a lot of attention and or the use of a bot. Again, as I always say most of you should not be trying to trade short term. Some will rather buy and sell on long term swings over months. The rest (majority) of you can actually beat 90% of traders by just adding to your positions of recommended coins on dips and holding (HODL). See the graphic of the spread strategy I'm using.
Just to clarify, my spread trades are 1% plus a 0.3% boost to each step in the spread. This allows for smaller moves to be covered and yet permits a wider coverage in case the market should began to run in either direction by compounding the spread at each step. Should a sell or buy occur, I use a delay of 30 minutes before refilling the order to prevent "bouncing" trades and running up commission charges.
So basically your "dollar cost averaging" on the way up AND down?
6Shooter
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@CryptoCoinJunky, In essence, yes. This type of spread is a tactic I learned when trading in the stock market for a corporate Pension Plan years ago. This method permits me to do some TA on the movement of the asset, then estimate a likely range for trading. After I establish the range for expected trading (in hours, days or weeks) I then try to estimate the price volatility IE: what percentage of the asset price with the price move over 1 to 5 candles. This helps me set the % of the spread between buys and sells. A number of other factors are considered that round out the picture but these two just mentioned are the most important. Now if I have correctly estimated the above I'm always in the market at a profit, I never have a losing trade with this strategy, however, I can get stuck holding the bag on one side or the other if I'm not careful. This can be avoided by checking regularly and if I have an imbalance in buys and sells I do a re-evaluation and I may reallocate the spread. This strategy is partly one I learned and partly of my own modifications. - I hope this helps. I'm in the process of building a website to share my work in more detail. I'm also already publishing a Free Newsletter that contains more detail than I can post to tradingview due to text length limitations on tradingview.
6Shooter
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@6Shooter, BTW this strategy will work in any market if correctly implemented but it's limitation while quite safe is that a bit of capital is tied up while not in a active trade. It's great in a sideways to slowly trending and indecisive market and provides some protection against a sudden price movement in either direction. Since I think the short market bias is bullish but indecisive this is my favorite strategy for the situation.
@6Shooter, Thanks for that thorough explanation. Again, this just seems like dollar cost averaging to me, which I use as well and typically set a % amount per every rally or dip to place more funds into.
6Shooter
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@CryptoCoinJunky, The big advantage is that because it's a spread of 10 orders 5 placed on each side of the current price, it keeps me profiting in the trade on small swings in a sideways to mildly trending market. It takes care of itself to some degree. It is also emotionless, orders are placed in advance not requiring a decision for each trade since the strategy is already in place, and it takes care of small runs in price in either direction. As I mentioned, in the post, it can be done manually or with a bot. I use a bot for this strategy and it tracks the sells and buys in real time then places new orders as they are filled.
CryptoAccountBuilders
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@6Shooter, Ahhhhh....I know EXACTLY what you're talking about. I was actually going to run a bot on this myself a few weeks back but got sidetracked. The owner of the bot had a video talking about this and called it his "landmine method". You simply lay out "landmines" in both directions and profit from either direction. Sounds interesting and something I think I'll setup in the next few days. Thanks for reminding me. ;-)
Just to make sure I got this right...say the current price of XYZ coin is $500. You would setup buys at say 490,480,470,etc etc if you were going for 2% wins. Same thing for asks.....sell at $510,520,530, etc etc? Seems so simple, but with a bot running 24/7, I'm sure it adds up.
I'm assuming that you would play this out on a bullish trend line or consolidation for safety reasons.
6Shooter
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@CryptoCoinJunky, Yes that's it. I always do TA prior to setting up the bot. However, depending on your goals, it can be weighted toward selling or buying into a trend to gain even more advantage. As I said this strategy never produces a losing trade, but a series of smaller wins. In a volatile market where I am expecting wild swings I just make the spread wider 2, 3, 4% between orders. BTW the bot I use can be seen here and you can try out the demo bot.cryptocoinadvisor.com
CryptoAccountBuilders
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@6Shooter, Not sure what you're eluding to on this statement >"it can be weighted toward selling or buying into a trend to gain even more advantage" Where is the advantage?
Thanks for the resource. I am well aware of Haasbot, however it is extremely overpriced. I use Autoview which is extremely cheap and works very well with Tradingview. If you want to get away from all those high monthly fees, you should definitely check that one out.
6Shooter
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@CryptoCoinJunky, Thanks for the tip on the bot I'll have a look at it. The advantage is if for instance, I expect the bias in price is downward I can put more on the buy side of the bot to pick up cheaper coins as the price falls, but by keeping a few sells in on the other side I get the added profits of additional buys and sells as the price oscillates on the way down.